I'm Calling It: Oklo Will Be a Very Different Stock After July for 1 Reason

It has been a tough run for Oklo (NYSE: OKLO) investors. Since 2026 began, the share price of the nuclear stock has fallen by around 14%. From their highs set last October, share prices are down a whopping 61%.

There are several reasons for the downfall. For instance, a lack of major announcements is part of it. While Oklo did sign a major agreement with Meta Platforms in January for a 1.2-gigawatt small modular reactor (SMR) system, actual construction of any project in its pipeline has not seen much news. This lack of real-world traction has undeniably weighed on the stock.

But the company -- and thus its shares -- could receive a timely momentum boost in July from a positive announcement.

Image source: Getty Images.

Expect this positive announcement from Oklo in July

In March, Oklo announced that its Groves Isotopes Test Reactor -- which it acquired earlier this year through its Atomic Alchemy acquisition -- received important regulatory approvals that will help the reactor reach criticality by a deadline of July 4.

What exactly is criticality? According to the U.S. Department of Energy:

We say a nuclear reactor is 'critical' when it is perfectly stable. That happens when each uranium atom that splits via fission releases enough neutrons to cause one additional atom to split. That stable 'chain reaction' is what keeps nuclear power plants generating electricity around the clock.

While this Texas facility is more focused on medical and industrial radioisotopes versus electricity generation, getting its first reactor to criticality should provide a much-needed positive update for Oklo. "This plant will help us gather critical data, refine our processes, and apply those lessons to subsequent licensing submissions and future deployments," Oklo's CEO said in a statement. "Groves is helping show what a faster model for nuclear asset deployment can look like," he later added.

Why the July 4 deadline? The date was actually chosen by the U.S. government, not Oklo.

According to reports, the Department of Energy wants to reach criticality for multiple test reactors in the U.S. on that date to coincide with the nation's 250th anniversary. The Groves reactor was fast-tracked by the Trump administration and put under its Energy Reactor Pilot Program, which speeds up approval and regulatory times for nuclear systems to reach commercial licensing. The Groves site was one of three nuclear reactors chosen nationwide.

William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer is bullish on Oklo stock given how friendly regulators have been to the company. "While we recognize the inherent risks of a pre-revenue business, we view Oklo as a leader among advanced reactors and making significant progress under the more favorable nuclear and regulatory environment," he wrote in an update to clients after reaffirming his outperform rating.

To be clear, it will still be years until we learn whether Oklo's SMR systems are commercially viable at scale. But its Atomic Alchemy division appears on the fast track to achieving its first revenue.

Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.