Prediction: Pfizer Will Beat the Market Over the Next 5 Years

Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) stock reached all-time highs earlier this decade thanks to the company's dominance in the market for coronavirus vaccines and medicines. However, the pharmaceutical leader was unable to keep up that pace. Revenue and earnings declined significantly since those highs, as did the company's share price. The stock is down 35% over the past five years. But what if Pfizer could recover and deliver superior returns through 2031? In my view, there is a good chance that it will happen. Here is why.

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Newer products are making an impact

Pfizer's best-selling medicines include older products, such as the anticoagulant Eliquis and the cancer drug Ibrance. The healthcare giant's lineup also still features Comirnaty and Paxlovid, its coronavirus products. Most of these are no longer reliable growth drivers. In 2025, among these four, only Eliquis posted year-over-year sales growth. Here's even worse news: Eliquis will run out of patent exclusivity in the next few years, and it won't be the only one of Pfizer's drugs that will suffer that fate.

This problem seems already baked into the company's share price. Pfizer is trading at 8.8x forward earnings, versus the average of 16.8x for healthcare stocks. However, the company has several newer products that are starting to come into their own and could help drive growth well into the 2030s. Pfizer's Abrysvo, a vaccine for the respiratory syncytial virus, racked up $180 million in sales in the first quarter, up 37% year over year.

The company's Elrexfio, a cancer medicine, also posted solid sales growth, with revenue reaching $80 million, up 34% year over year. Padcev, another cancer drug, added a healthy $591 million in sales, 39% higher than the year-ago period. There is still plenty of work to be done with these (and other) newer drugs. As some of them earn label expansions, they could account for an even larger percentage of Pfizer's top line. Overall, Pfizer's revenue grew 5% year over year to $14.5 billion in the first quarter.

The company's financial results could worsen before they improve as it navigates patent cliffs. But since the market, in my view, is already pricing that in, the stock could move in the right direction as its newer products continue to gain momentum.

The pipeline looks attractive

Pfizer is looking at major pipeline progress over the next five years that could jolt its stock price. The company is on track to start about 20 pivotal studies in 2026. Some of Pfizer's medicines in development look more promising than its current crop of newer drugs. For instance, Pfizer boasts several weight-loss candidates, including a potential long-acting option, MET-097i, that could be administered once monthly if approved. Pfizer also licensed a GLP-1 product, Ecnoglutide, from a China-based company, Sciwind Biosciences.

Ecnoglutide was recently approved for weight management in China, a country with one of the largest populations in the world and a growing obesity problem. Ecnoglutide posted a strong 15.1% average weight loss in a 48-week clinical trial. This could be just the early innings of Pfizer's efforts in the anti-obesity market. The company does have plenty of candidates beyond this area, especially in oncology.

Provided Pfizer can make solid pipeline progress over the next few years, the company's shares could rise meaningfully. And eventually, it will have a lineup capable of driving strong top-line growth, especially once its coronavirus products -- and other older medicines that will lose patent exclusivity -- no longer significantly impact its financial results. What does all this mean for investors? By the time Pfizer has a rejuvenated pipeline, it might be too late to pick up its shares at attractive levels.

Drugmakers tend to perform well as phase 2 and phase 3 study results for promising candidates come in. That's what could happen to Pfizer over the next few years. Of course, there are some risks, too, notably clinical and regulatory setbacks. However, given the company's deep pipeline and the number of phase 3 studies it has started over the past 18 months, things are looking promising for the pharmaceutical giant. That's why Pfizer's shares could perform well through 2031 (and beyond). Long-term investors should consider adding a position in this healthcare leader.

Prosper Junior Bakiny has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Pfizer. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.