18 Words From Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh That Can Reshape Monetary Policy and Wall Street

Source The Motley Fool

Key Points

  • Jerome Powell's final term as Fed chair concludes on May 15.

  • President Trump's nominee to succeed Powell, Kevin Warsh, has a unique view on inflation and how it should be tackled.

  • Warsh's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting record and his desire to deleverage the central bank's balance sheet point to the possibility of higher interest rates, which won't please Wall Street.

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A historic shift at America's foremost financial institution is just a shade over two weeks away.

May 15 will mark the end of Jerome Powell's tenure as head of the Federal Reserve, and possibly the beginning of Kevin Warsh's first term as Fed chair. It may also signal a new era for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC).

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Jerome Powell delivering remarks to reporters following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Jerome Powell's final day as Fed chair is May 15. Image source: Official Federal Reserve Photo.

It's been evident for some time that Powell wouldn't return for a third term as Fed chair. Sitting presidents are responsible for nominating Fed chairs, and President Donald Trump has been vocally feuding with Powell since the beginning of his second term. Despite Trump's repeated calls for aggressive interest rate cuts, Powell has repeatedly stated that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will allow economic data to dictate monetary policy.

But what if the monetary policy Wall Street thought it understood for decades was about to change?

Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh aims to reshape how we think about inflation

Last week, Trump's nominee to succeed Powell delivered 2.5 hours of testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. Warsh needs a majority of votes in the Senate Banking Committee and U.S. Senate to earn confirmation.

While several senators grilled Warsh about the independence of the central bank amid Trump's continued calls for rate cuts, it's Warsh's comments to Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD) that may have stolen the spotlight.

In discussing how the Fed has "lost its way a bit" and "missed the mark" with regard to inflation, the potential next Fed chair stated,

I believe that price stability should be a change in prices such that no one's talking about it.

These 18 words suggest that Kevin Warsh aims to reset the long-standing definition/parameters of inflation. Moving away from established targets, such as the Fed's 2% long-term objective for inflation, and adopting something far vaguer, such as "prices that no one's talking about," would potentially alter the presumed balance of the dual mandate.

Although all FOMC members aim to stabilize prices and maximize employment (the dual mandate), Warsh's definition of inflation suggests a strong emphasis on price controls and less in the way of boosting employment. This would be consistent with his voting record on the FOMC before, during, and after the financial crisis.

While Warsh brings five years of experience to the table -- he served on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve from Feb. 26, 2006, to March 31, 2011 -- he spent the better part of those years cautioning his peers against lower interest rates amid a surge in unemployment. Warsh earned the label "hawk," given his apparent preference for price stability over maximizing employment during the financial crisis.

Warsh's FOMC voting record, coupled with his desire to deleverage the Fed's bloated balance sheet, which stands at approximately $6.7 trillion as of April 22, threatens to push interest rates higher for a longer period. That would be terrible news for an expensive stock market that had been pricing in several additional rate cuts.

If Warsh alters the central bank's thinking on inflation, it has the potential to reshape monetary policy and send the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite on a wild ride.

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