Stock Showdown: Rivian or Lucid -- Which Is the Better Buy?

Despite some automakers scrapping or delaying their electric vehicle (EV) plans, the sector is still expected to grow in the years ahead. Fortune Business Insights projects the global EV market will climb from roughly $892 billion in 2025 to over $2 trillion by 2032.

The bigger opportunity, however, may be in the autonomous vehicle (AV) market, which could be worth $41 trillion by 2034. Not only may the autonomous vehicle market be a bigger opportunity, but building the software needed for a car to drive itself can be a higher-margin business.

For two companies with plummeting stock prices over the last several years -- Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) and Lucid Group (NASDAQ: LCID) -- executing on emerging opportunities in autonomous driving could help reverse those losses.

Image source: Getty Images.

What to know about Rivian

In 2025, Rivian hosted an Autonomy & AI Day that showcased some of the company's technological advances and its vision for what comes next. Essentially, through its data recorders, AI models, and software updates, the company has a feedback loop that improves the Rivian Autonomy Platform as it scales.

That increased focus on software is starting to show up in the results. In 2024, gross profit for its software and services segment was $7 million; that climbed to $576 million in 2025.

In terms of more upside connected to its autonomous tech, the company has a joint venture with Volkswagen. Uber also agreed to invest $1.2 billion in Rivian over the next several years, subject to certain conditions involving autonomous vehicles.

What to know about Lucid

Uber is busy placing bets across the autonomous vehicle industry, as it also invested in Lucid. In a recent update, Uber committed to purchasing at least 35,000 Lucid vehicles and has invested a total of $500 million in the company.

Lucid also has support from the Saudi Arabian government's Public Investment Fund, which has a purchase agreement for up to 100,000 vehicles over 10 years.

In addition to its autonomous technology that lets the vehicle navigate the world around it, Lucid Assistant offers a hands-free assistant in the vehicle. Powered by AI voice company SoundHound AI, the digital assistant can answer questions about sports, weather, and vehicle functionality.

There's upside, but also plenty of risk

Both Lucid and Rivian are speculative investments, and each company is incurring heavy losses, with cash burn being a concern for both. The stocks are down 83% to 98% over the past five years. Between the two, Rivian wins the battle for me as a company to consider for a small position, as it has more clearly presented its vision for autonomous software and how it fits into its business.

Broadly, one edge for Rivian is that it's producing and delivering more cars, with over 42,000 deliveries in 2025. In comparison, Lucid delivered fewer than 16,000 vehicles in 2025. I also like its joint venture with Volkswagen, which could lead to deeper collaboration or other deals. The Uber support isn't unique, as both have their own deals with the ride-hailing company, but the financial support is still nice to have.

Something else that can give Rivian an edge is its vertical integration, as it is developing its own chips, while Lucid is working with Nvidia. In-house production can be risky, but it allows Lucid to control more of its own destiny and avoid reliance on other companies.

Jack Delaney has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia, SoundHound AI, and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.