GE Vernova vs. First Solar: Oil Above $100 Just Changed Everything for This Trade

The energy market is now entering a new phase. Oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel in March 2026 amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Roughly 20% of global oil and gas supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and recent disruptions in the region have heightened concerns around supply stability. Against this backdrop, energy markets are increasingly prioritizing energy security and reliable power supply over purely cost-driven decisions.

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Investor perceptions about energy stocks such as GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV) and First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) also seem to be changing, at least in the short run.

Comparing the two companies

GE Vernova is a global supplier of power and electrification equipment, offering gas turbines, grid equipment, and wind systems that form the backbone of the modern energy infrastructure. In fiscal 2025, the company booked orders worth $59.3 billion and reported revenue of $38.1 billion. The company exited fiscal 2025 with an equipment backlog of $65 billion and a total backlog of $150 billion. The company also expects to reach a backlog of at least $200 billion in the next few years, driven largely by gas power, grid infrastructure, and electrification projects.

GE Vernova's installed equipment base already helps generate roughly 25% of the world's electricity. This, in turn, has created a massive, recurring services opportunity. In fiscal 2025, about 45% of GE Vernova's revenue came from services. The company also had a roughly $85 billion services backlog at the end of fiscal 2025, giving it strong earnings visibility even in uncertain macro environments.

Pure-play solar module manufacturer First Solar also reported impressive results in fiscal 2025, with revenues of $5.2 billion and module shipments reaching 17.5 gigawatts. However, the company's contracted backlog has declined from 68.5 gigawatts at the end of fiscal 2024 to 50.1 gigawatts at the end of fiscal 2025, reflecting contract terminations and a more uncertain demand environment.

Solar deployments are highly sensitive to financing conditions, regulatory approvals, and project execution timelines. All these factors are adversely affected during periods of market volatility. Hence, being a critical enabler of reliable power, GE Vernova appears to be a better pick in the current, increasingly unstable energy market.

Manali Pradhan, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends First Solar and GE Vernova. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.