Tesla Q1 Deliveries of 358,000 Miss Expectations, Traditional Business Under Pressure

TradingKey - Tesla ( TSLA) delivered 358,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2026, a year-over-year increase of 6.3%, but falling short of the consensus market estimate of 372,000. Deliveries of the mainstay Model 3/Y totaled 342,000 units, up 5.6% year-over-year, which also missed market expectations of 354,000 units.

Notably, Tesla's first-quarter production reached 408,000 vehicles, a 13% increase year-over-year, exceeding the market estimate of 388,000 units.

Historical data shows that although deliveries achieved year-over-year growth in the first quarter of this year, this growth came off a low base—Tesla delivered 337,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2025, a 13% decline from the same period in 2024. Furthermore, the company's total deliveries for 2025 fell to 1.64 million from 1.79 million in 2024, indicating a continuous downward trend.

Currently, the majority of Tesla's revenue still depends on vehicle sales. Although Elon Musk has been promoting new ventures such as the Cybercab robotaxi and the Optimus humanoid robot, these products have yet to begin contributing to revenue.

In January this year, Tesla announced it would cease production of its flagship Model S and Model X vehicles and repurpose the original production lines in Fremont, California, for the manufacture of Optimus robots.

Furthermore, the Cybertruck pickup, which Tesla began delivering at the end of 2023, does not yet appear to have gained mainstream market acceptance. Meanwhile, the company plans to significantly increase deliveries of the all-electric Semi truck in 2026, a Class 8 vehicle that promises a range of up to 500 miles.