2 Predictions for Norwegian Cruise Line Stock in 2026

The country's third largest cruise line has historically been a laggard relative to its peers. But that doesn't mean it will always be that way for Norwegian Cruise Line (NYSE: NCLH). Can this textbook cheap stock become a world-beater?

That's a big question, and I can only counter with some equally large predictions. Here are three things I see playing out in the next nine months for Norwegian Cruise Line and its shareholders.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. NCL stock will move higher in the next nine months

It's been a rough start to the year for the cruise line operator. NCL stock declined 16% through the first three months of 2026. Its two larger rivals also ended March with year-to-date declines, but NCL was the worst performer of the three.

I would love to predict that NCL will finally outperform Carnival (NYSE: CCL) and Royal Caribbean (NYSE: RCL), but that has historically been a dud of a wager. Just looking over the past 12 months, Carnival stock and Royal Caribbean shares have returned more than 30%, while Norwegian stock has declined in that time.

NCL still has its charm. It trades at the lowest revenue and earnings multiples. It is growing in the current climate. Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and NCL all have trailing revenue growth in the single digits.

Here's a positive prediction to kick things off in an industry that's become too cheap to ignore: NCL stock will move higher over the nine final months of 2026. It may or may not be enough to push year-to-date results higher, but I think the stock will close out the year higher than it is right now.

2. It will introduce a quarterly dividend

The cruise line industry's post-pandemic recovery is complete. All three major players are now posting record revenue. Only Royal Caribbean is generating record profitability, but give Carnival and NCL time. They'll get there, given how the fundamentals have improved, with customers' willingness to pay more than before for the watery escapes.

Another sign that things are back to normal is that Royal Caribbean reinstated its quarterly distributions in the spring of last year. Carnival followed suit earlier this year. They both currently yield a little more than 2% on a forward basis.

NCL can't bring back a quarterly dividend, since it never offered one before. However, it can't ignore that its two more successful rivals are now appealing to value investors by offering reasonable dividends. As the only one of the three with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio in the single digits, it can certainly afford to play the payout game. It can still grow its business and pay down its debt. It wouldn't take much from NCL's earnings for it to yield more than its peers. And it would finally have the lead in something valuable beyond just valuation.

Rick Munarriz has positions in Royal Caribbean Cruises. The Motley Fool recommends Carnival Corp. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.