Where Will Tesla Stock Be in 5 Years?

Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock remains a battleground between bulls and bears, and the latter appear to be winning so far this year. It's a pivotal year for the company, setting the direction for the next few years.

Tesla's medium-term catalyst

No one is buying Tesla stock solely for its electric vehicle (EV) or energy businesses, because the valuation (Tesla trades at 161 times the analyst consensus for 2026 earnings) is high. Instead, investors are pricing in a substantial increase in earnings from its robotaxi and, later, the Optimus robot business, as well as ongoing earnings from EVs and energy.

Image source: Tesla.

However, the key near-term catalyst is the robotaxi business, not least because, in theory, it will bring a recurring stream of fast-growing income from commissions on every mile driven in a robotaxi, as well as software revenue from full self-driving subscriptions and charging revenue.

The development of the robotaxi is behind the dramatic earnings increase that Wall Street analysts are penciling in for Tesla in the coming years. The chart below shows the mean earnings-per-share (EPS) estimate and the massive difference between the low and high estimates. Let's put it this way: The high estimate in 2030 is almost 3 times the low figure, so assuming both analysts pencil in the same valuation multiple, then one target will be arguably 3 times the other.

Data source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. Chart by author.

The massive growth in mean estimated earnings (a compound annual growth rate of 47% to 2030) clearly prices in robotaxi revenue growth.

Tesla's robotaxi rollout

But here's the thing. Tesla's robotaxi business isn't scaling as fast as anyone would hope, and certainly not as fast as CEO Elon Musk's public announcements suggest.

It's not just rhetoric; Tesla is making multibillion-dollar investments to develop a robotaxi business, including starting volume production of its dedicated robotaxi vehicle, the Cybercab, in April, and building a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery factory in Nevada, partly to provide batteries for the Cybercab.

Musk said at the 2025 annual shareholders meeting that "the rate at which we receive regulatory approval will roughly match the rate of Cybercab production," but with Cybercab production set to ramp up imminently, and Tesla so far failing to expand its unsupervised robotaxi network beyond a few cars in a limited area of Austin, Tesla is at risk of tying up capital and cash unnecessarily.

It's also at risk of not securing the early-mover advantage built into the medium-term earnings assumptions analysts use for the stock. The company has significant advantages, including producing its own low-cost robotaxi, owning its own autonomous driving software, and leading in EVs. Also, its camera-only approach has the potential to deliver much lower costs for robotaxi owners and users. Still, they need to be realized with robotaxi expansion in 2026.

Where will Tesla stock be in a few years' time?

The answer to where Tesla's earnings will be on the chart above lies in the development of its robotaxi. Unfortunately, there hasn't been much good news on that front, with none of the seven cities (Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Las Vegas) where Tesla is aiming to expand its robotaxi rollout in the first half of 2026 having done so yet.

The more the rollout is delayed, the less likely Tesla is to meet its earnings estimates, and the company needs some favorable newsflow on this before investors can feel fully confident in its medium-term outlook.

Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.