Why April Could Be a Turning Point for Tesla Stock
Key Points
A key decision from a European authority in April could raise awareness of the intrinsic value of Tesla's full self-driving technology.
The company is likely to report year-over-year growth in vehicle deliveries in April.
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Given the thus-far glacial pace of Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) robotaxi rollout, it's hard to expect anything dramatic in April. However, the narrative around the stock could change in a positive direction. There are three main catalysts for this change that investors need to keep a close eye on.
1. Tesla's delivery numbers
These numbers may be released by the time you read this, and the fierce debate around them will be over. A UBS analyst threw the cat among the pigeons in mid-March by projecting Tesla's deliveries at 345,000 in the first quarter -- a figure notably below the analyst consensus of about 365,000.
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It's also a number receiving some support on the prediction markets platform Polymarket, with implied odds indicating a 62% probability of a figure below 350,000 and only a 27% probability of a figure between 350,000 and 375,000 at the time of writing.
Image source: Getty Images.
The eventual number is significant because the electric vehicle company had 336,681 deliveries in the first quarter of 2025, and it needs to beat that number handsomely to demonstrate that the sales slowdown in the first half of 2025 came down to the transition to a new Model Y, Tesla's best-selling model.
2. Cybercab production
CEO Elon Musk has long promised that the dedicated robotaxi vehicle Cybercab will begin volume production in April. During the annual general meeting presentation in early November, Musk promised investors, "I think the rate at which we receive regulatory approval will roughly match the rate of Cybercab production."
This is a key point because a huge ramp-up in Cybercab production without regulatory approvals (Tesla doesn't have any at present) would tie up inventory and cash unnecessarily. As such, investors shouldn't expect too much from the production increase. Still, Tesla's production of Cybercabs reduces execution risk and focuses investors on the potential value of its robotaxi aspirations.
3. Approval of supervised full self-driving (FSD) in Europe
Tesla recently said it expected to receive approval of supervised full self-driving (FSD) technology in the Netherlands in April. And the Netherlands Vehicle Authority affirmed that Tesla and the authority are "currently completing the final steps of the assessment process." Approval in the Netherlands could open a pathway to a green light from the entire European Union, or failing that, approvals on a country-by-country basis.
That would be a major step forward in Tesla's game plan to expand awareness of FSD in Europe and increase the competitiveness of its vehicles in a market it's been struggling in of late.
Image source: Tesla.
Tesla's updates in April
While it's unlikely to be a game-changing month for the company, and the robotaxi rollout isn't expanding at the pace investors hope for, Tesla looks likely to end April better than when it begins it.
The company could exit April demonstrating growth in EV delivery again, progress on Cybercab production, and its first FSD approval in Europe. Throw in the unveiling of the Roadster, some more color on the robotaxi rollout on an earnings call, and even the possibility of a robotaxi expansion into Las Vegas, and there's plenty to look forward to for Tesla in April.
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Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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