Could Buying Joby Aviation Stock Today Set You Up for Life?

One day, Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) may not need an introduction.

For now, let's just say Joby is an aviation start-up that's designing a flying taxi, otherwise known as an electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. Don't let "flying taxi" conjure the wrong image: Joby's aircraft looks nothing like the flying DeLorean of Back to the Future. Instead, it has six tilting rotors that allow the aircraft to go up and down like a helicopter, just more quietly and with less downwash.

Flying taxis now fall into the larger market of urban air mobility, which Morgan Stanley once estimated would reach $9 trillion by 2050. If that were the case, Joby, which is one of the leading start-ups in this nascent industry, could easily set today's investors up for life.

But Joby isn't there yet, and Morgan Stanley's estimate (from 2021, mind you) remains speculative.

How Joby could set you up for life

For Joby Aviation to set you up for life, it needs to first prove its aircraft is super safe, which is essentially the same thing as saying it needs to get its certification ducks in a row.

On that front, it's getting close. Earlier this month, it flew its first FAA-conforming aircraft for Type Inspection Authorization (TIA). This is a huge step toward finally securing type certification, which it needs to put paying passengers up in the air.

Image source: Joby Aviation.

If we entertain the likelihood that it will get the right certification, the next challenge is manufacturing enough aircraft to start turning a profit. With respect to that, Joby is also making noteworthy progress. In January, for example, it added a 700,000-square-foot facility in Ohio that could start producing as many as four aircraft per month in 2027.

Having FAA-certified air taxis means nothing, however, unless you have paying customers, and these days, that means connecting Joby's service to passengers through a mobile app. Joby partnered with Uber in February to roll out Uber Air, which lets Uber riders book Joby flights through the Uber app.

These are all essential steps to get paying passengers into Joby's aircraft. But are they enough to make Joby's early investors millionaires?

Let's answer that numerically. Joby's stock trades under $10 today, and it carries a roughly $10 billion market cap. For this stock to truly set you up for life, you would likely need to see something close to a 100-fold gain over time. If you invested, say, $10,000, and it grew 100-fold, that would leave you with $1 million.

Could Joby grow 100-fold? If Joby stock grew 100-fold from today's price, its market cap would equal about $1 trillion. Today, Uber's market cap is about $158 billion.

It's not impossible, but it's highly unlikely that Joby will join the trillionaire club. If the eVTOL industry works, Joby could deliver a 20- or even 30-times return for investors. But I wouldn't bet everything on this stock.

At this point, Joby remains a speculative play on a nascent market. It could deliver a life-changing amount of money over time, but it likely won't be the only stock that sets you up for life.

Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.