Will 2026's Social Security COLA Hold Up to Inflation? Here's What We Know So Far.

If you weren't exactly jumping for joy when the Social Security Administration announced a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2026, you were probably in good company. While this year's raise is higher than the 2.5% COLA seniors received in 2025, it's far from overly generous.

You may be wondering whether 2026's Social Security COLA will actually hold up well to inflation this year since, historically, the program's raises have failed to do so. Here's what we know so far -- and what you may want to gear up for.

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Is this year's 2.8% COLA outpacing inflation so far?

Social Security COLAs are pegged to changes in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). In December, the CPI-W increased 2.6% on an annual basis. So, based on that, it seems like so far, the 2026 Social Security COLA is outpacing inflation.

That doesn't mean things will stay that way, though. If tariffs drive prices upward as 2026 progresses, this year's Social Security COLA could easily be outpaced by inflation, leaving beneficiaries in the lurch.

Of course, tariffs could also have the opposite effect. They could cause an economic slowdown that causes inflation to cool. As of now, it's hard to know what to anticipate.

Have realistic expectations about your 2026 COLA

To some degree, it doesn't pay to put much stock into how Social Security's 2.8% COLA is doing compared to the CPI-W. And the reason is that the CPI-W is a poor measure for those COLAs in the first place.

The CPI-W reflects the costs faced by working Americans. Most Social Security recipients, by nature, aren't working and are older. They therefore tend to have different expenses.

Healthcare, for example, tends to be one of them. And in recent years, healthcare inflation has outpaced broad inflation, causing Social Security recipients to lose buying power overall. That's not something that's going to change in 2026, regardless of future CPI-W readings.

As such, it's important to be realistic about what your 2026 COLA will and won't do for you. It might help you keep up with your costs this year. But it probably won't. And if you don't have savings or outside income at your disposal, you might find yourself scrambling to pay your bills.

What does that mean? It may be too late to build up a nest egg if you're already retired. But in that case, consider other changes to improve your financial picture. Those could include cutting expenses or working part-time.

Earnings from a job could put much more money in your pocket than this year's COLA. And a small paycheck could supplement your Social Security benefits nicely, giving you more financial breathing room.

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