Where Will Polkadot (DOT) Be in 1 Year?

Polkadot (CRYPTO: DOT) initially drew significant attention when it launched in Aug. 2020. It started trading at $2.69 per token, and skyrocketed to a record high of $54.98 on Nov. 4, 2021.

Yet today, Polkadot trades at less than $2. Like many of the market's smaller altcoins, it fizzled out as rising interest rates chilled the broader cryptocurrency market. It also became less relevant than blue chip cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) as the Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark rates over the past two years.

Could this little token bounce back over the next 12 months? Let's review its unique features, catalysts, and challenges to make an informed decision.

Image source: Getty Images.

What sets Polkadot apart from other cryptocurrencies?

Gavin Wood, a co-founder of Ethereum, created Polkadot in 2020. Like Ethereum, Polkadot uses the energy-efficient proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism to validate transactions. Therefore, its tokens can only be staked (locked up to earn interest-like rewards) rather than mined.

Polkadot and Ethereum both support smart contracts, which are used to develop decentralized apps (dApps), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and other tokenized assets. However, Polkadot's core Relay Chain handles only the security, validation, and cross-chain communication for its blockchain. All of its apps are built on its parachains, which are rooted in its Relay Chain but have their own logic, governance, and tokenomics.

Simply put, Polkadot's Relay Chain is like the Federal government, while the parachains are akin to individual states. Each of those parachains is more flexible than monolithic PoS blockchains like Ethereum, where all smart contracts follow the same rules.

For example, one of Polkadot's parachains is built for decentralized finance (DeFi) apps, while another one supports EVM (Ethereum Virtual Machine) smart contracts for developing cross-chain applications. Last year, it upgraded those parachains with faster access speeds. The new Asset Hub, launched last November, centralizes all asset management, smart contract, staking, governance, and token operations in a single place for its developers. It expects that platform to eventually expand and evolve into a "decentralized supercomputer" for creating apps.

Why did Polkadot's price collapse?

Back in 2021, the buying frenzy in meme coins drove Polkadot's stock to its all-time high. Low interest rates, stimulus checks, social media buzz, free trading platforms, and a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) fueled that feverish rally. However, Polkadot gave up most of those gains over the following years as rising rates drove investors toward more conservative investments.

Polkadot initially increased its supply by 10% per year, with no set maximum, so it couldn't be valued by its scarcity like Bitcoin or other tokens with supply caps. It eventually set a hard cap of 2.1 billion tokens last September, but its price had already dropped to about $4.

Polkadot continues to attract thousands of new developers, but it's still much smaller than Ethereum. On the surface, Ethereum's Layer 1 (L1) blockchain is slower than Polkadot's parachains. Still, its Layer 2 (L2) "rollups" -- which bundle together multiple transactions and process them off-chain at higher speeds -- compensate for that difference. Therefore, Polkadot might be appealing for developing niche cross-chain apps that require its tighter security features for new chains, but it's not attracting as many developers as Ethereum.

Since Polkadot was difficult to value based on its scarcity or developer utility, it fell behind Bitcoin and Ether even as interest rates declined and the crypto market heated up again.

What will happen to Polkadot over the next year?

Polkadot's most significant near-term catalyst is its "agile coretime" parachain upgrade, which will replace its expensive, long-term parachain slot auctions with on-demand blockspace. That upgrade should reduce costs and risks for handling its app-specific chains and temporary workloads -- and possibly help it keep pace with comparable L2 rollups on Ethereum.

Polkadot's core strengths -- its app-specific parachains, predictable fees, on-chain governance, and compliance-friendly architecture -- could make it better suited than Ethereum for regulated finance, supply chain, and government clients. If it makes more progress in those fragmented markets, its price might stabilize and rise again over the next 12 months.

Lastly, declining interest rates could drive more investors back toward smaller altcoins like Polkadot. The Fed has already cut its benchmark rate six times in 2024 and 2025, and most analysts expect it to drift lower, with one or two more rate cuts in 2026.

However, I believe Polkadot's price will either trade sideways or slightly decline this year. It has a few irons in the fire, but they're not hot enough to fuel another massive rally. For now, I think it's smarter to stick with Bitcoin or Ethereum instead of smaller altcoins like Polkadot.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.