Can XRP Get Back to $3 in 2026?

XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is one of the most popular cryptocurrencies, and investors see a lot of potential in its ability to transform global trade. Last year, it hit highs of more than $3 amid growing excitement and the U.S. government put more favorable policies for the crypto market into place.

It has, however, fallen since hitting those highs, and it is now down 3% over the past 12 months. But with new exchange-traded funds (ETFs) making it easier than ever to invest in XRP, could the digital currency be set to rally and get back to $3, or possibly even higher this year?

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What needs to happen for XRP to rally?

The big selling point for XRP is its ability to transform finance and help settle global payments with greater speed and efficiency than what's available at most financial institutions today. There's long-term potential for the cryptocurrency, as it settles transactions within three to five seconds and functions as a bridge currency.

But for it to rally this year, there needs to be some catalyst it can rally around, such as improving economic conditions or at least proof of some greater adoption of XRP. Despite the launch of spot ETFs recently, XRP's value hasn't been soaring. It's been declining in recent months as troubling macroeconomic conditions appear to be weighing on the cryptocurrency. And if economic conditions aren't strong, then there may not be as much demand for cross-border payments, making it even more difficult for XRP to demonstrate strong volume growth.

Data from xrpscan indicates that in 2025, XRP payment volumes peaked in November but have declined since then. This coincides with the gloomier outlook for the economy and doubts about future rate cuts.

Things could get worse before they get better

XRP's value surged in late 2024 after Donald Trump's presidential election win, as investors were bullish on the new administration adopting more crypto-friendly policies. But looking ahead, there's plenty of uncertainty about who will be leading the Federal Reserve in the future and how that might affect overall market sentiment and the potential for interest rate cuts.

Although the long-term picture may be an encouraging one for XRP investors who are willing to be patient with the cryptocurrency, there may be challenges ahead that bring down not only XRP this year, but other digital currencies as well. Generally, when investor sentiment is strong and there's a belief that rate cuts are on the horizon, cryptocurrencies and other speculative investments tend to do well. But when that isn't the case, the reverse can happen.

Why I wouldn't count on XRP hitting $3 this year

XRP would need to rise by close to 40% to get back to the $3 mark this year. Given how overheated the overall stock market has been due to soaring valuations in recent years, I think it's more likely that there's a slowdown in speculative buying this year than there is an increase. The economy is still on shaky ground, and there's no compelling reason to suggest things will get much better in 2026.

Market conditions are far from ideal for the crypto world, and XRP may decline more in the months ahead. There's still a lot of risk for investing in cryptocurrencies, and XRP is no exception to that. If you are, however, willing to take on the risk and are willing to hang on for a number of years, then you may want to consider taking a small position in XRP (e.g., less than 5% of your portfolio) because it does have a lot of possible upside in the long run, and it could offer some good diversification.

David Jagielski, CPA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends XRP. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.