Bold Prediction: Genius Sports Is About to Explode Higher. Here's the Smoking Gun.
Key Points
This mid-cap stock's late 2025 slide could prove to be a generational buying opportunity.
The reason behind that tumble is actually an opportunity for this company.
Its media unit is finally starting to gain acclaim and is viewed as a long-term catalyst.
- 10 stocks we like better than Genius Sports ›
Bettors who visit the counter to place sports wagers and those who do so on mobile apps know the industry's consumer-facing brands, including DraftKings and FanDuel, among others. Many of those same bettors aren't aware of what goes on behind the scenes.
That's where pick-and-shovel companies like Genius Sports (NYSE: GENI) come in. Genius isn't in the business of booking bets, but it is essential in that process. Part of a sports betting data duopoly with rival Sportradar (NASDAQ: SRAD), Genius provides critical data to sportsbooks.
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Said another way, all those in-game and micro wagers and parlays that bettors love are made possible by companies like Genius and Sportradar.
Genius Sports is a behind-the-scenes betting name with a lot of promise. Image source: Getty Images.
Two reasons Genius Sports could be a genius pick
Genius was strong in 2025, but the stock endured a turbulent end to the year, slumping from its 52-week high of $13.73 to below $9 before staging a recovery. That slide was primarily attributable to the rise of prediction markets.
But investors may be missing the story as it relates to Genius and prediction markets. At its recent investor day, the data provider said that it's already selling data to market makers, which bring liquidity to yes/no exchanges, and added that its 2028 revenue forecast is "a cautious level of growth from prediction markets."
That revenue outlook calls for sales of $1.2 billion in 2028, implying a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22%.
Adding to the bull case is the company's media arm, which puts it at the forefront of the sports advertising ecosystem. Genius leverages technology, including artificial intelligence (AI), to help advertisers serve relevant ads in online venues during live sporting events.
This unit is ramping up, with CEO Mark Locke noting that it could be as significant as the company's betting data business, implying that a $300 million forecast in media revenue by 2028 may be a restrained estimate. So, Genius doesn't have one smoking gun portending upside. It has two.
Should you buy stock in Genius Sports right now?
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Todd Shriber has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Sportradar Group. The Motley Fool recommends Genius Sports and recommends the following options: short February 2026 $32.50 calls on Sportradar Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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