Is Bitcoin a Buy, Sell, or Hold in 2026?

The performance of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) this year has been disappointing, to say the least. The world's top cryptocurrency is now down 4% in 2025, and is limping into 2026 with little or no momentum.

If this were any other cryptocurrency, that might be cause for concern. But, time and time again, Bitcoin has shown the ability to bounce back from adversity. So is Bitcoin a buy, sell, or hold in 2026?

The historical evidence for Bitcoin

In 10 of the past 13 years, Bitcoin has been the top-performing asset in the world, and it hasn't even been close. In seven of those years, Bitcoin more than doubled in value. For good reason, Bitcoin has soared from a price of just $5 in January 2012 to a price of $90,000 today.

But here's the thing: in those other three years, Bitcoin has been the worst-performing asset in the world. In 2014, Bitcoin declined by 57%. In 2018, Bitcoin lost 74% of its value. And in 2022, Bitcoin lost 64% of its value.

So that's what makes 2025 such a confusing year for Bitcoin investors. Bitcoin is neither first nor worst. It's not the top-performing asset in the world, and it's not the worst-performing asset in the world, either.

Image source: Getty Images.

Unless Bitcoin has a Santa Claus rally at year-end, it's likely to end the year under the $100,000 mark, which is right where it started the year. At best, investors might be able to squeak out a narrow win for the year.

Is Bitcoin still Bitcoin?

That raises an interesting question for crypto investors: Is Bitcoin still Bitcoin? Ever since the introduction of the new spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, Bitcoin hasn't been the same. Volatility is way down, and Bitcoin has seemingly been range-bound more than at any time in recent memory.

Moreover, the much-hyped Bitcoin halving in April 2024 failed to deliver as expected. It took all the way until the final days of the presidential election before Bitcoin really found its mojo for the year.

There are several possible explanations for this. The most likely is the increased role played by institutional investors in the crypto market. They are helping to make Bitcoin mainstream, and in the process, are helping to smooth out some of the massive swings in price that once characterized Bitcoin.

Another factor is the shift in investor perceptions. At one time, investors primarily viewed Bitcoin as a highly speculative digital asset, similar to a high-risk, high-reward tech stock. Now, the growing perception is that Bitcoin is "digital gold." In other words, it's a safe-haven asset that you add to a portfolio in order to stabilize it during periods of extreme uncertainty.

Both factors are leading to speculation that Bitcoin may no longer be the boom-or-bust asset that it used to be. Maybe the days of Bitcoin doubling in value every year are over. But it also means that Bitcoin may no longer be prone to the types of epic collapses that occurred in 2014, 2018, and 2022.

A lower-risk Bitcoin investment strategy for 2026

With that in mind, I'm dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into Bitcoin in 2026. In other words, I'm planning to buy a pre-set amount of Bitcoin at regular intervals throughout the year. For me, this is the best way to capture Bitcoin's future upside potential, while also protecting my portfolio from a potential collapse in the price of Bitcoin.

While history rarely repeats, it can be a useful guide. As a result, I'm taking a closer look at Bitcoin's performance during the bull market rally of 2020-21. Bitcoin's price hit a then all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021, before starting to decline. In 2022, the scale of Bitcoin's collapse intensified out of seemingly nowhere, leaving many investors confused and wiped out.

For me, that's a worst-case scenario, and exactly the type of scenario that a DCA strategy can help to avoid. If the price of Bitcoin trends down in 2026, I'll simply be buying more Bitcoin at a cheaper price. It's the classic "buy the dip" strategy that has worked so well in the past for Bitcoin investors.

Sometime in 2026, Bitcoin should go back to being Bitcoin. If that's the case, then crypto investors will be handsomely rewarded for their patience and long-term approach.

Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.