Post (POST) Q3 EPS Jumps 32%

Key Points

• Post’s non-GAAP diluted EPS was $2.03, surpassing analyst estimates of $1.65 (non-GAAP) and last year’s $1.54 (Adjusted diluted earnings per common share, non-GAAP, Q3 FY2024).

• Full-year FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) guidance was raised to $1,500–$1,520 million on the back of acquisitions and improved segment margins.

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Post (NYSE:POST), the consumer packaged goods company behind leading cereal, refrigerated, and foodservice brands, announced its Q3 FY2025 results on August 7, 2025. The headline news: the company delivered diluted non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.03, handily beating analyst expectations of $1.65 (non-GAAP) and the prior year’s $1.54 (non-GAAP, Q3 FY2024). Revenue (GAAP) came in at $1,984.3 million, topping both the $1,953.6 million GAAP consensus. Management raised its full-year Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) outlook for FY2025, Management cited momentum from new acquisitions in raising its full-year Adjusted EBITDA outlook. As a whole, the quarter showcased strong profitability, driven by outperformance in Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail, even as some parts of the business—particularly Post Consumer Brands—struggled with volume declines.

Source: Analyst estimates provided by FactSet. Management expectations based on management's guidance, as provided in Q2 2025 earnings report.

Overview of Post’s Business and Recent Focus Areas

Post operates a portfolio of food brands with a focus on ready-to-eat cereals, refrigerated side dishes, eggs, and broad foodservice offerings. Its prominent business units include Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix (cereal), Refrigerated Retail (including Bob Evans), and Foodservice, which supplies food products for hotels, restaurants, and institutional clients.

The company’s strategy in recent years centers on acquisitions, cost optimization, and positioning itself against strong private label and branded competition. A key success factor has been its ability to integrate acquired businesses while managing a decentralized operating model. Post’s reliance on major retailers—Walmart accounted for 19.9% of total net sales in FY2024—remains a critical focus, as does navigating fluctuating raw material and logistics costs.

Quarter Highlights: Financial and Operational Performance

The quarter delivered notable profitability growth, with adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) up 13.4% and net earnings (GAAP) up 9.0% year over year. Gross margin expanded to 30.0% (GAAP), even as raw material inflation and higher interest costs remained persistent themes. Segment results varied: Foodservice was a standout, lifting net sales by 18.6% to $698.5 million, and recording a 38.3% rise in segment profit. The segment benefited both from egg pricing adjustments linked to avian influenza and increased demand for protein-based shake products, with volumes up 4.5% excluding the recently acquired Potato Products of Idaho (PPI) business.

Refrigerated Retail delivered strong results, increasing net sales 9.1% to $233.9 million and segment profit increased by 380.4%, aided by improved egg operations and higher side dish production. The acquisition of PPI added capacity and $8.4 million in net sales, positioning the segment for further product innovation and distribution growth in the next fiscal year.

By contrast, the Post Consumer Brands division faced significant pressure. Net sales fell 9.3% to $914.0 million, with segment volumes down 10.3%. Pet food volumes declined 13.0% because of lower demand for private label items and lost distribution, while cereal volumes shrank 5.8% as category demand weakened. Segment Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) decreased by 8.3%, with management noting that cost control—including plant closures—shielded the segment from even sharper declines. Weetabix segment sales rose by 1.3%, but that improvement was driven entirely by currency gains, not underlying growth; volumes slipped 2.5% as lower-performing products exited the lineup and the overall cereal category softened.

The quarter also featured major acquisition activity. Post completed its purchase of 8th Avenue Food & Provisions on July 1, 2025, and finalized the PPI acquisition in March. Management acknowledged early setbacks in the PPI integration, describing higher-than-expected employee turnover that will delay cost and synergy benefits, but remains confident in eventual outcomes. Management continued to emphasize a selective approach to mergers and acquisitions, given capital market uncertainty.

Looking Ahead: Outlook and Watchpoints

Management raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) guidance to a range of $1,500–$1,520 million, up from a previous range of $1,460–$1,500 million (non-GAAP, FY2025). This updated view reflects a partial-year contribution from the 8th Avenue acquisition, margin improvement in segments like Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail, and confidence in continued cost reductions.

Investors should watch for the trajectory of margin sustainability amid persistent input cost inflation. Additional factors to monitor include ongoing share repurchases—3.9 million shares bought for $434.7 million—and the impact of a newly legislated cash tax benefit of approximately $300 million over the next five years. POST does not currently pay a dividend.

Revenue and net income presented using U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) unless otherwise noted.

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