Does Opendoor Still Have Potential After Its Meme-Driven Rally?

TradingKey - Opendoor Technologies Inc (OPEN.US) released its second-quarter financial results after Tuesday’s market close — and shares plunged more than 24% in after-hours trading.

According to the earnings report, Opendoor posted Q2 revenue of $1.57 billion, surpassing the analyst consensus of $1.50 billion. The company reported a net loss of $0.01 per share, in line with expectations. Notably, adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $23 million — the first time since 2022 — signaling a potential shift toward operational improvement.

CEO Carrie Wheeler said: “Despite continued challenging conditions in the housing market, we delivered $1.6 billion in revenue in the second quarter and achieved adjusted EBITDA profitability for the first time since 2022.”

In late July, Opendoor surged as much as 460% due to a wave of speculative momentum from the meme stock trading community. However, analysts caution that with fundamental challenges still present, the company remains a risky investment rather than a fundamentally strong one.

The U.S. housing market has remained sluggish under persistently high interest rates. Former President Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed, arguing that high rates make homeownership unaffordable for many Americans. He has continued pressuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates, and recently stated he is “seriously considering eliminating capital gains taxes on home sales.”

Outlook

According to Benzinga Pro, Opendoor expects Q3 revenue between $800 million and $875 million, significantly below the consensus estimate of around $1.22 billion. The company forecasts an adjusted EBITDA loss of $21 million to $28 million for the quarter — a signal that skepticism around its near-term recovery remains high.

Investors should closely watch the September FOMC meeting for any indication of a rate cut. A shift toward lower interest rates could provide long-term support for the housing sector and potentially help Opendoor reverse its current losses.

For now, while Opendoor has shown signs of stabilization, its future depends less on speculative momentum and more on macroeconomic conditions — particularly the direction of monetary policy.