EUR/JPY falls back as ECB warns economic risks after easing monetary policy further

Source Fxstreet
  • EUR/JPY turns upside down as the ECB anticipates deterioration in the Eurozone economic outlook due to Trump’s tariff measures.
  • The ECB has reduced its key interest rates by 25 bps for the sixth time in a row.
  • The Japanese Yen fails to capitalize on smooth trade talks between the US and Japan.

The EUR/JPY pair gives up its entire intraday gains and ticks lower to near 161.50 during North American trading hours on Thursday. The pair faces a sharp sell-off as the Euro (EUR) underperforms after the monetary policy announcement by the European Central Bank (ECB).

The ECB has cut its key borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps), as expected, pushed the Deposit Facility Rate and Main Refinancing Operations Rate lower to 2.25% and 2.4%, respectively. This is the sixth straight interest rate cut by the ECB in a row and the seventh time since June, when the central bank started unwinding the restrictive monetary policy stance.

It appears that the ECB has changed its stance from “accommodative” to “neutral” as it omitted to use the phrase that interest rates are still restrictive. However, it has posted a grim picture of the Eurozone economic outlook in the face of tariffs imposed by United States (US) President Donald Trump, which are currently paused for 30 days. “Outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions,” the ECB said in the monetary policy statement.

Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde has expressed confidence that defence and infrastructure spending will bolster manufacturing activities in her press conference after the policy decision. Lagarde doesn’t expect that the economy has contracted in the first quarter but warns that the economic outlook is “clouded by uncertainty".

Though investors have underpinned the Euro over the Japanese Yen (JPY), it struggles to outperform against its other peers, even as US President Trump has confirmed that trade talks with Japan's economic revitalization minister Ryosei Akazawa went smoothly.

“A Great Honour to have just met with the Japanese Delegation on Trade. Big Progress!” US President Donald Trump wrote in a post on Truth.Social platform on Wednesday.

While Japanese officials are still concerned about the economic outlook due to the passive effects of Trump tariffs on their economy. Earlier in the day, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said that he is “deeply concerned” about US tariffs affecting “Japan and the world economy”.

Economic Indicator

ECB Rate On Deposit Facility

One of the European Central Bank's three key interest rates, the rate on the deposit facility, is the rate at which banks earn interest when they deposit funds with the ECB. It is announced by the European Central Bank at each of its eight scheduled annual meetings.

Read more.

Last release: Thu Apr 17, 2025 12:15

Frequency: Irregular

Actual: 2.25%

Consensus: 2.25%

Previous: 2.5%

Source: European Central Bank

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Weekly Market Outlook: U.S. October CPI Focus and Powell and Fed Officials SpeakInsights – This week, the U.S. will release October CPI data, with inflation expected to face challenges in easing further. Retail sales data will also be closely watched for insights into the economy, guiding the Fed's future policy.
Author  Mitrade
Nov 11, 2024
Insights – This week, the U.S. will release October CPI data, with inflation expected to face challenges in easing further. Retail sales data will also be closely watched for insights into the economy, guiding the Fed's future policy.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
【Daily Brief】30-year Treasury tops 5.59%, S&P 500 slips to 7,670 and gold holds $4,180 — PCE lands tonightThe 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.
Author  Suzie
Sep 30, Wed
The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.
placeholder
Gold falls to near $4,150 as higher Treasury yields, oil prices outweigh softer PCE inflationGold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,150 during the early Asian session on Thursday, pressured by elevated US Treasury bond yields. Traders await the US September employment data for fresh impetus, which will be released later on Friday. 
Author  FXStreet
Oct 01, Thu
Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,150 during the early Asian session on Thursday, pressured by elevated US Treasury bond yields. Traders await the US September employment data for fresh impetus, which will be released later on Friday. 
placeholder
Euro softens below 1.1250 on France’s fiscal riskThe EUR/USD pair loses momentum to around 1.1245 during the early Asian session on Monday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) amid fears over France's shaky fiscal trajectory. The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report is due later on Monday. 
Author  FXStreet
7 hours ago
The EUR/USD pair loses momentum to around 1.1245 during the early Asian session on Monday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) amid fears over France's shaky fiscal trajectory. The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report is due later on Monday. 
Related Instrument
goTop
quote