The world under Trump 2.0 – Standard Chartered
Trump’s policies will likely incur costs, including for the US; this raises questions about their longevity. Trade wars, anti-immigration policies and a rejection of multilateralism will be high on the agenda. Other countries and regions are bracing for the new reality, with varying levels of adaptability, Standard Chartered’s Senior Economist Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce notes.
Ideology or pragmatism?
“Who will win the argument between ideology and pragmatism? Trump’s chosen appointees and advisers are firm believers in protectionism, anti-immigration policies, and maximum pressure against Iran; it appears that the team is being assembled with a view to fully implementing Trump’s agenda. But his political instincts could ultimately be obstructed by the economic costs of his maximalist campaign promises – particularly higher inflation.”
“That could become a political liability ahead of the 2026 midterm elections; the party that controls the White House tends to lose midterms. Ideologues are likely to be willing to accept the initial costs of their policy choices for the sake of longer-term outcomes. But political cycles are shorter-term in nature, and pragmatists could be willing to make a course correction if economic costs become impossible to ignore. Those costs could potentially include higher inflation, pressure on economic sectors struggling with the reduction of immigrant workers, or a stock-market correction.”
“While execution is uncertain, some core tenets of Trump’s worldview are unlikely to change. On the foreign policy front, he has decisively rejected multilateralism and is likely to take an adversarial approach to – or refuse to participate in – multilateral agreements, compromises and institutions. This has implications for global climate policy, the UN, Bretton Woods institutions, and US relations with the EU. US foreign policy will likely return to a focus on bilateral discussions, where the US enjoys the most leverage given its size and influence. This does not mean that no deals will be agreed, however. We look at the various regions to see what Trump 2.0 could mean for the rest of the world.”
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