AUD/NZD gains ground on robust Australian data, markets digest NZ tax relief
Source Fxstreet
- The AUD/NZD rebounded to a high of 1.0840 after dipping to 1.0815 on Wednesday.
- Strong data from Australia following the report of hot inflation figures reported at the beginning of the week benefited the AUD.
- New Zealand's newly announced tax cut policy may delay the RBNZ's rate cuts.
The AUD/NZD was seen trading higher during Thursday's session as markets digested mid-tier Australian data and a fresh fiscal policy from New Zealand.
In Australia, the robust Q1 business investment and higher-than-expected private capital expenditure figures supported the AUD. On Tuesday, the country reported higher-than-expected inflation figures which coupled with strong economic data may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to turn more hawkish. On Wednesday Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be closely followed.
Simultaneously, New Zealand's new government announced an NZD 14.7 billion tax cut package for low and middle-income households. A more lax fiscal policy has softened expectations of imminent rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) which could eventually limit the losses for the Kiwi. The odds of a cut in November fell slightly but remain priced at around 70%.
AUD/NZD technical analysis
On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in negative territory, indicating a firm downtrend. The persistent rise of the red bars of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram further solidifies this downward momentum.
However, as the pair approached oversold territory on Wednesday indicators saw a slight upward correction on Thursday, which is in line with the latest market developments as sellers seem to be taking a breather.
AUD/NZD daily chart
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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