US: Trade, capital flows and Donroe Doctrine – Rabobank

Rabobank analysts highlight new US-linked investment projects under Japan’s large trade framework, including LNG and Oil infrastructure, as evidence Washington can steer partner capital into US real assets rather than just stocks or bonds. The report also notes the Trump–Milei pact with Argentina, arguing it pressures the EU’s Mercosur FTA and showcases the Donroe Doctrine’s primacy over technocratic trade deals.

Directed investment and shifting trade rules

"In geoeconomics, the US announced the first three projects under Japan's $550bn trade deal, which will include around $33bn for an LNG-powered plant, a crude oil facility and a synthetic industrial diamonds plant."

"This is much more significant than it looks: it’s proof of concept that the US can tell trade and security partners where to place their capital back into the US, rather than them just pushing it into US stocks or bonds."

"The recent Trump-Milei trade pact is placing pressure on the EU to act on its Mercosur FTA, now only being applied provisionally."

"The Trump deal with Argentina overrides it in some places, underlining the argument that Donroe Doctrine > technocratic FTA when push comes to shove."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)