S&P 500 kicks off 2024 with a bearish tone on Tuesday, slips back towards $4,700

Source Fxstreet
  • Tuesday drew the S&P’s rally to a sharp end as risk appetite reverses direction.
  • Equities were largely dragged lower by poor showings in tech stocks.
  • US data turns red once again, crimping investor confidence.

The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 major equity index closed Tuesday sharply lower after falling just short of making all-time highs in December. Risk appetite reversed course and turned sharply lower to kick off 2024, drawing the S&P’s recent rally to a quick close as investors pulled back on US economic data misses.

US equities closed out 2023 with a stall in the recent stock rally which helped close out the year with firm gains across major indexes, with the S&P etching in a nine-straight-week upside swing before sinking back on Tuesday as overextended market flows pull back.

The S&P 500 declined over half of a percent on Tuesday, closing down 27 points at $4,742.83. The tech-heavy NASDAQ saw the largest losses on the day, slipping over 1.6% to close at $14,765.94, down nearly 250 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stumped Tuesday’s risk-off flows, closing marginally flat at $37,715.04, rising a scant 0.07% to close 25.5 points higher.

Tech stocks led the charge down the charts as investors pulled back from tech darling Apple (AAPL), which shed 4% on the day following disappointing demand for their latest products, leading Barclay’s to downgrade their outlook on AAPL.

The US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI missed the mark on Tuesday, declining to a four-month low of 47.9 in December versus the market forecast of a steady print of 48.2. Economic data continues to soften in the US, increasing the risk of a “soft landing” economic scenario that threatens to crimp growth and hobble employment, but the Fed will need a bigger push on the inflation front before rates can start coming down.

Wednesday’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve from 46.7 to 47.1 for December, and markets will be keeping a close eye on the Fed’s latest Meeting Minutes due to publish at 19:00 GMT. Investors will be tearing open the Open Market Committee’s latest minutes to try and draw a bead on how steeply Fed policymakers are leaning towards rate cuts, with some particularly eager market participants anticipating the next rate-cutting cycle to begin as soon as March.

2024’s first trading week will wrap up with US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), slated for Friday. December’s NFP is expected to show US jobs additions easing back slightly from 199K to 168K.

NFP watchers will first have to survive the midweek hump, with ISM Manufacturing and the Fed’s latest Meeting Minutes releasing on Wednesday, followed by Thursday’s ADP Employment Change and Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending December 29.

S&P 500 Technical Outlook

Despite Tuesday’s bearish 2024 kickoff, the S&P remains firmly entrenched in bull country, trading within reach of fresh all-time-highs beyond $4,814.68, and it would take an 8% decline before the major equity index even reached the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,363.

$4,600 remains a key technical barrier, providing a technical floor for any extended downturns with the 50-day SMA rising into $4,500 to provide additional technical support.

S&P 500 Daily Chart

S&P 500 Technical Levels

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Bitcoin Slides 5% as Sellers Lean In — Can BTC Reclaim $88,000?Bitcoin has dropped back below $88,000 after rolling over from $90,500, with price still trading under the 100-hour Simple Moving Average. The sell-off found a floor at $85,151, and BTC is now consolidating near that base, but rebounds are facing pressure from a bearish trend line around $89,000. Bulls need to retake $88,000–$89,000 to ease downside risk; failure to do so keeps $85,500–$85,000 and then $83,500 in play, with $80,000 as the deeper “line in the sand.” Bitcoin (BTC) is back in damage-control mode after a sharp pullback wiped out recent gains. The price failed to reclaim the $90,000–$90,500 band, rolled over, and slid through $88,500 before briefly dipping under $87,000. Buyers did show up around $85,000, but the rebound so far looks more like stabilization than a clear trend reversal. Bitcoin dips hard, finds a bid near $85,000(h3) BTC’s latest move lower began when it couldn’t build follow-through above $90,000 and $90,500. Once that upside stalled, sellers took control and pushed price down through $88,500. The slide accelerated enough to spike below $87,000, but the market didn’t free-fall. Bulls defended the $85,000 zone, printing a low at $85,151. Since then, Bitcoin has been consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low — a clue that the bounce is still shallow and that sellers haven’t fully backed off yet. Structurally, BTC is still on the back foot: It’s trading below $88,000, and It remains below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, keeping short-term trend pressure pointed downward. Resistance is layered, and $89,000 is the problem area(h3) If bulls try to turn this into a recovery, they’ll have to climb through multiple ceilings in quick succession. First, BTC faces resistance around $87,150, followed by a more meaningful barrier near $87,500. From there, the market’s attention snaps back to $88,000 — the level BTC just lost and now needs to reclaim. A close back above $88,000 would improve the tone, but it doesn’t solve the bigger issue: there’s a bearish trend line on the hourly BTC/USD chart (Kraken feed) with resistance near $89,000, which also lines up with the next technical hurdle. If BTC can push through $89,000 and hold, the rebound could extend toward $90,000, with follow-through targets at $91,000 and $91,500. But until price clears that $88,000–$89,000 zone, rallies are at risk of being sold rather than chased. If BTC fails to reclaim resistance, the downside path is clear(h3) The near-term bear case is simple: if Bitcoin can’t climb back above the $87,000 area and keep traction, sellers may attempt another leg lower. Support levels line up like this: Immediate support: $85,500 First major support: $85,000 Next support: $83,500 Then $82,500 in the near term Below that, the major “don’t break this” level is still $80,000. If BTC slips under $80,000, the risk of acceleration to the downside increases significantly — not because it’s magic, but because it’s the kind of psychological and structural level that tends to trigger forced de-risking. Indicators: momentum still leans bearish(h3) The intraday indicators aren’t offering much comfort yet: Hourly MACD is losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI remains below 50, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand on short timeframes. So while the $85,000 defense held for now, the market hasn’t flipped bullish — it’s just stopped bleeding.
Author  Mitrade
3 hours ago
Bitcoin has dropped back below $88,000 after rolling over from $90,500, with price still trading under the 100-hour Simple Moving Average. The sell-off found a floor at $85,151, and BTC is now consolidating near that base, but rebounds are facing pressure from a bearish trend line around $89,000. Bulls need to retake $88,000–$89,000 to ease downside risk; failure to do so keeps $85,500–$85,000 and then $83,500 in play, with $80,000 as the deeper “line in the sand.” Bitcoin (BTC) is back in damage-control mode after a sharp pullback wiped out recent gains. The price failed to reclaim the $90,000–$90,500 band, rolled over, and slid through $88,500 before briefly dipping under $87,000. Buyers did show up around $85,000, but the rebound so far looks more like stabilization than a clear trend reversal. Bitcoin dips hard, finds a bid near $85,000(h3) BTC’s latest move lower began when it couldn’t build follow-through above $90,000 and $90,500. Once that upside stalled, sellers took control and pushed price down through $88,500. The slide accelerated enough to spike below $87,000, but the market didn’t free-fall. Bulls defended the $85,000 zone, printing a low at $85,151. Since then, Bitcoin has been consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low — a clue that the bounce is still shallow and that sellers haven’t fully backed off yet. Structurally, BTC is still on the back foot: It’s trading below $88,000, and It remains below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, keeping short-term trend pressure pointed downward. Resistance is layered, and $89,000 is the problem area(h3) If bulls try to turn this into a recovery, they’ll have to climb through multiple ceilings in quick succession. First, BTC faces resistance around $87,150, followed by a more meaningful barrier near $87,500. From there, the market’s attention snaps back to $88,000 — the level BTC just lost and now needs to reclaim. A close back above $88,000 would improve the tone, but it doesn’t solve the bigger issue: there’s a bearish trend line on the hourly BTC/USD chart (Kraken feed) with resistance near $89,000, which also lines up with the next technical hurdle. If BTC can push through $89,000 and hold, the rebound could extend toward $90,000, with follow-through targets at $91,000 and $91,500. But until price clears that $88,000–$89,000 zone, rallies are at risk of being sold rather than chased. If BTC fails to reclaim resistance, the downside path is clear(h3) The near-term bear case is simple: if Bitcoin can’t climb back above the $87,000 area and keep traction, sellers may attempt another leg lower. Support levels line up like this: Immediate support: $85,500 First major support: $85,000 Next support: $83,500 Then $82,500 in the near term Below that, the major “don’t break this” level is still $80,000. If BTC slips under $80,000, the risk of acceleration to the downside increases significantly — not because it’s magic, but because it’s the kind of psychological and structural level that tends to trigger forced de-risking. Indicators: momentum still leans bearish(h3) The intraday indicators aren’t offering much comfort yet: Hourly MACD is losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI remains below 50, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand on short timeframes. So while the $85,000 defense held for now, the market hasn’t flipped bullish — it’s just stopped bleeding.
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