US Dollar strengthens following hot PPI figures
- US core and headline PPI came in higher than expected in February.
- On the negative side, Retail Sales from February and weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in lower than expected.
- US Treasury yields rose to two-week highs.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at 103.36, up 0.55%, on Thursday. The Greenback got a boost following the release of hot Producer Price Index (PPI) figures, which triggered a rally in US Treasury yields. On the negative side, Retail Sales and Jobless claims figures came in soft.
Despite inflation in the US remaining sticky, expectations on the start of the easing cycle of the Federal Reserve (Fed) remain steady. Markets are discounting that the rate cuts will begin in June, but the focus will now be on the revised Dot Plot for the upcoming March meeting to gather additional evidence on the Fed’s stances.
Daily digest market movers: DXY rallies as markets digest PPI data
- The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for February increased by 1.6% YoY, which outperformed a consensus of 1.1% and is an improvement from the previous 1%.
- The core PPI showed an increase of 2.8% YoY, higher than the previous 2.6%.
- Retail Sales for February reported by the US Census Bureau, showed a monthly increase of 0.6% (MoM), below the 0.8% expected.
- The Initial Jobless Claims for the week that ended on March 9 was reported to be at 209K, lower than the predicted figure of 218K but higher than the previous 210K.
- Overall, the economic outlook in the US is mixed, with signs of sticky inflation and weak economic activity.
- Markets are currently predicting less than 15% and 60% for a Fed rate cut in May and June, respectively, which aligns closer to the Fed's outlook for three cuts this year.
- US Treasury yields soared with the 2-year yield at 4.70%, the 5-year yield at 4.29%, and the 10-year yield at 4.28%.
DXY technical analysis: DXY opens gaps for bulls as bears lose momentum
On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has a positive slope yet drifts in negative territory, signaling that bulls are slowly building momentum. Coupled with this, the decreasing red bars on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram corroborate the growing buying momentum as the sellers lose traction.
Furthermore, the positioning of DXY below its 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) underscores the embedded bearish outlook. However, if the buyers make a move above the 20-day average at around 103.50, the outlook might shift in favor of the bulls.
US Dollar FAQs
What is the US Dollar?
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar?
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar?
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar?
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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