Fed’s dovish pivot to set the tone for the Dollar to weaken into year-end – UBS
Source Fxstreet
The US Dollar has regained ground in recent weeks after depreciating in late 2023. Economists at UBS analyze the FX market outlook.
Most G10 currency pairings are likely to remain range-bound in the months ahead
Most G10 currency pairings are now back in familiar ranges (e.g., EUR/USD between 1.0500 and 1.1000), where we expect them to remain in the coming months.
Better relative growth in the US than in Europe and a partial reversal of US rate cut expectations should support the Greenback in the near term. However, the Fed’s dovish pivot is likely to limit the extent of any rallies and sets the tone for the Dollar to weaken into year-end.
Our most preferred currency is the Australian Dollar. We also see opportunities for investors to sell near-term upside risks in EUR/USD and GBP/USD, or downside risks in USD/CHF, GBP/CHF, and USD/JPY in exchange for yield pickup.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for November 11, 2026. Read on for the details.
Bitcoin lost its 200-day average — but the exit started three sessions before the CPIBitcoin fell 2.5% to about $73,400 on 11 November, an 11-week low, breaking its 200-day moving average near $73,100. The 24-hour liquidation tally reached $632 to $705 million, roughly 82% of it longs. But spot ETF outflows began three sessions earlier and USDT's market cap has shrunk $6.6 billion in 60 days — the leveraged length left before the inflation print did. A double top at 81,890 and 81,080 leaves a measured target of 69,366.
Bitcoin fell 2.5% to about $73,400 on 11 November, an 11-week low, breaking its 200-day moving average near $73,100. The 24-hour liquidation tally reached $632 to $705 million, roughly 82% of it longs. But spot ETF outflows began three sessions earlier and USDT's market cap has shrunk $6.6 billion in 60 days — the leveraged length left before the inflation print did. A double top at 81,890 and 81,080 leaves a measured target of 69,366.
On November 12, gold prices (XAUUSD) extended their recent losses, falling further below $4,000 in early Asian trading to hit an intraday low near $3,968, marking a third consecutive day
Gold closed below $4,000 again — the ETF crowd and central banks stayed, the momentum money leftSpot gold is trading near $3,999, its third consecutive lower daily low, after a 5.00% 10-year yield and a 102.85 dollar index raised the odds of a December hike to 87%. But the selling is not coming from the strategic holders: managed-money net longs fell to 324 tonnes, a 21-week low, and Goldman Sachs attributes roughly 95% of five weeks of selling to non-reportable positions. ETFs still hold a record 4,256 tonnes and central banks bought 321 tonnes in Q3. The table below sets the triggers, directions and levels.
Spot gold is trading near $3,999, its third consecutive lower daily low, after a 5.00% 10-year yield and a 102.85 dollar index raised the odds of a December hike to 87%. But the selling is not coming from the strategic holders: managed-money net longs fell to 324 tonnes, a 21-week low, and Goldman Sachs attributes roughly 95% of five weeks of selling to non-reportable positions. ETFs still hold a record 4,256 tonnes and central banks bought 321 tonnes in Q3. The table below sets the triggers, directions and levels.
