USD: Data tests continue – ING

Markets got back into action after the US Labor Day with a defensive stance and risk assets coming under pressure. Markets saw a return of the textbook risk-off dynamics in FX: strong safe-havens (JPY, CHF, USD) and weak high-betas (AUD, NZD, NOK), ING’s FX strategist Francesco Pesole notes.

Fed’s Beige Book is coming

“The US ISM Manufacturing was a mixed bag yesterday. The headline index rebounded slightly less than expected to 47.2, as new orders slumped to the lowest since May 2023. At the same time, prices paid were above expectations at 54.0. We’d be wary of overinterpreting a survey that has been in contractionary territory for 20 of the last 21 months: ultimately, it is well established that for growth momentum to extend into the second half of the year, it will be up to services to drive it.”

“Today’s main event is the release of US JOLTS job openings, which are seen slowing from 8,184k to 8,100k in July. This figure feeds into an important metric: the ratio of unemployed persons per job opening, which has risen from the 0.5 low of 2022-23 to 0.8 in June. In July, unemployment rose to 7.16m, meaning that the ratio will likely round up to 0.9 unless job openings surprisingly spike back to 8.42m. In the two years before the pandemic, the average was 0.8-0.9, so a move to 1.0+ in the coming months would be a clear signal of labour market strain. The other event on the US calendar today is the Fed’s Beige Book.”

“We have been warning of pockets of USD strength in an environment where markets are fully pricing one 50bp cut by the Fed this year and may need to get more concerned about a US recession to move more on the dovish side. The key here is that US recessionary bets may end up hitting equities and high-beta currencies more than USD. We think the yen and Swiss franc are in a stronger position compared to other G10 currencies.”