USD: CPI needed to shake up FX market – ING

Global currency volatility has continued to drop rapidly as markets await developments on eurozone and US politics, as well as on the data side. The proximity to Thursday’s pivotal CPI release in the US may also be behind this week’s cautious trading in FX, ING’s FX strategist Francesco Pesole notes.

US Dollar to remain flat ahead of Friday’s CPI report

“Today, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces House policymakers for his second testimony, after yesterday’s Senate appearance had few repercussions on markets. Powell’s prepared remarks focused on two-way risks, reiterating the need for more data input to justify monetary easing. So, more of the same rhetoric from Powell, who’s happy with keeping markets relatively quiet.”

“The US Democratic Party revolt against President Joe Biden appears to have been fully sidelined by markets. Predict index of Biden’s probability of being the party's candidate in November has bounced back from 40% to 60% after recent signs that the internal push to replace him may indeed be insufficient.”

“We expect FX volatility to remain low today, a development that can favour an additional short-term recovery in high carry currencies like MXN and BRL, while keeping the pressure high on the funding yen. The dollar may remain broadly flat into tomorrow’s CPI.”