USD: Markets eye Ukraine peace talks amid thanksgiving-thinned week – ING

The US Dollar (USD) faces downside risks this week as cautiously optimistic Ukraine peace talks and the Fed’s Beige Book could temper USD strength, keeping Dollar Index (DXY) near key resistance, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

US Dollar faces pressure ahead of beige book release

"In a week thinned by Thursday's US Thanksgiving Day holiday, there will be much attention on Ukraine peace talks. We have been here several times before, but it seems like the pressure of sanctions has Russia slightly more interested in a peace deal than usual. Latest reports suggest the US is backing away from supporting Russia's maximalist demands, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy may be on his way to Washington later this week to talk directly with US President Donald Trump."

"Away from politics, the dollar focus this week will be on emerging US data and the release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book on Wednesday evening. When it comes to data, the September retail sales data released tomorrow should be quite strong, but the market will probably have more interest in the Beige Book. Here, any anecdotal evidence from the Fed's 12 reporting districts that the slowdown in employment is broadening could put the notion of a Fed December rate cut back on the agenda. On Friday, remarks made by New York Fed President John Williams suggesting that he favours another cut in December moved markets."

"We think the combination of promising Ukraine peace talks and the Beige Book poses downside risks to the dollar this week. This means that DXY resistance at 100.25/35 may hold after all."