US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Range bound price waits for directional clarity
Source Fxstreet
- A long-term technical analysis of the Dollar Index suggests a sideways trend.
- This is likely to continue until a decisive break above or below the range.
- The index is currently meeting resistance from the 100-week Simple Moving Average.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the strength of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of trade-weighted competitors, is in a long-term sideways trend which has lasted for between six months and a year.
US Dollar Index: Weekly chart
Within its range-locked consolidation, it is currently meeting resistance after rising up to the 100-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 104.71.
There is a possibility it could retreat from this substantial barrier. The 50-week SMA sits not far below at around 103.62 and could provide support.
Prior to the formation of the range the Dollar index’s outlook was more bearish. The index reversed sharply at the September 2022 highs and tumbled. The sharpness and depth of the decline suggested the possibility of a major reversal in the trend, however, DXY found support first at 100.00 and then in the 99.00s before reversing and making a recovery.
Since the index found a floor in 2023 it has been oscillating between the aforementioned lows and a top at roughly 107.00.
It would require a decisive break below 99.56 – the July 2023 lows – to indicate bears were back in the driving seat. Such a move would change the trend to bearish and suggest even lower lows were on the horizon.
Alternatively, a decisive break back above 107.00 would tone the chart more bullishly, and suggest a climb back up to the 114.78 high of 2022.
"Decisive" would mean a weekly candle that broke and closed well away from the range high or low, or three consecutive bearish/bullish weeks that ended well away from the range high or low.
Until either materializes, price is seen continuing its sideways trending pattern.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
Prioritize filling the $27,000 gap and even try higher.
Bitcoin briefly loses 2025 gains as crypto plunges over the weekend.Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
ECB Policy Outlook for 2026: What It Could Mean for the Euro’s Next MoveWith the ECB likely holding rates steady at 2.15% and the Fed potentially extending cuts into 2026, EUR/USD may test 1.20 if Eurozone growth proves resilient, but weaker growth and an ECB pivot could pull the pair back toward 1.13 and potentially 1.10.
With the ECB likely holding rates steady at 2.15% and the Fed potentially extending cuts into 2026, EUR/USD may test 1.20 if Eurozone growth proves resilient, but weaker growth and an ECB pivot could pull the pair back toward 1.13 and potentially 1.10.
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD opens lower around $4,450 on fears of widening Iran conflictsGold price (XAU/USD) opens over 1% lower to near $4,445.00 on Monday, as oil prices have rallied further on fears of further widening of conflicts in the Middle East. WTI Oil price is up almost 3% above $102.50 in the opening trade, increasing fears of higher inflation expectations globally.
Gold price (XAU/USD) opens over 1% lower to near $4,445.00 on Monday, as oil prices have rallied further on fears of further widening of conflicts in the Middle East. WTI Oil price is up almost 3% above $102.50 in the opening trade, increasing fears of higher inflation expectations globally.
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $72.00 amid fading safe-haven demandSilver price (XAG/USD) continues to lose ground after registering tiny losses in the previous day, trading around $72.90 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The safe-haven demand for the precious metal fades amid rising optimism over Middle East peace.
Silver price (XAG/USD) continues to lose ground after registering tiny losses in the previous day, trading around $72.90 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The safe-haven demand for the precious metal fades amid rising optimism over Middle East peace.
Related Instrument
