Bitcoin Hashrate At Risk? US Trade War Could Hit 5% Mining Power

Bitcoin faces significant uncertainty as the trade war between the US and Canada could disrupt mining operations. Ontario Premier Doug Ford has warned that Canada may impose retaliatory tariffs on electricity exports to northern US states—or even cut the flow of power entirely—in response to tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump.

US-Canada Feud Could Hit Bitcoin Hashrate

Ford’s comments, captured in a video statement, highlighted the severity of potential measures: “If he wants to destroy our families, I’m going after absolutely everything.” The situation, which could impact up to 1.5 million customers in New York, Michigan, and Minnesota, now has industry observers worried about a ripple effect on Bitcoin mining.

Michael Maloney, Founder & CEO of Incyt, provided an analysis via X, suggesting that miners in the US Northeast face a significant risk should Ontario curtail or halt electricity exports. According to Maloney, more than 300 megawatts (and possibly up to 500 MW) of Bitcoin mining capacity is located along the New York–Canada border, accounting for “between 2.5% and 5% of global hashrate.”

“This news could be a huge impact to $BTC and #Bitcoin as a whole,” Maloney wrote, referencing the low-cost energy in the region that has been “prime for Bitcoin miners.” He shared data from the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) showing energy prices of around $0.037 per kWh in some areas—rates that have helped underpin large-scale Bitcoin mining operations. However, these prices have already begun to rise by about 30% in “day-ahead” projections, putting strain on miners reliant on cheap electricity.

Maloney pointed out that if up to 1.5 million electricity users in New York, Michigan, and Minnesota lose Canadian power, they would turn to local grids: “If 1.5M users are cut off, they’ll need to hit the NY grid. It’s winter, and cold, so let’s estimate 1,000 kW/Hr a month. That’s a shortfall of demand of ~2,000 MW/Hr.”

New York State power generation stands at about 17 GW currently, meaning it would need to add approximately 2 GW (a 12% increase) to meet demand. Maloney asserts that this would push prices higher: “This will spike pricing of power load by 40%-70%, raising the price to $0.075 kW/Hr. Demand pricing would surge significantly, likely pushing all-in costs north of $0.12 kW/Hr. The 1.5M impacted people will see power costs 4-5x greater than usual. This will devastate them.”

The key concern is whether the current fleet of Bitcoin mining machines could remain profitable at higher energy prices. Maloney referenced data from AsicMinerValue.com, highlighting that only devices with efficiencies of “better than 16.5 j/TH” might remain profitable: “Keen observers will note that all of these miners were released in the past year (and some are TBD). That means these machines are likely on back-order, with delivery scheduled over the next year. Sure would be a shame if they suddenly were 25% more expensive due to tariffs.”

Maloney further noted that while miners might find short-term relief through demand-response programs, the costs and tariffs would likely make such programs unsustainable in the long run. If facilities shut down or scale back, the immediate outcome could be a measurable drop in Bitcoin’s hashrate: “The loss of hashrate will slow down the network in the short-term. Difficulty will adjust and stabilize blocktime.”

Yet the deeper ramifications could affect the entire US mining industry, including major operations in Texas and other states that might also face higher tariffs. Maloney expects the stranded hashrate to “flow to other jurisdictions—many of whom are now a bit peeved with the United States.” He specifically pointed to Canadian miners and Chinese mining operators that might take advantage of newly available mining hardware and seek out cheaper electricity elsewhere.

For Maloney, the lesson is clear: “Trade wars (including tariffs, retaliatory tariffs, and manipulation of utilities services) are bad for business. And make no doubt, Bitcoin mining is BIG BUSINESS.”

At press time, BTC traded at $87,854.