Stock futures in the United States opened Thursday night flat, but the S&P 500 still managed to press its face against a fresh record, leaving investors glued to the screen as they wait for the official inflation numbers due Friday morning.
This comes as the index climbed 0.8% during the day, ending the session at 6,141.02, just inches away from the 6,147.43 intraday record last hit in February. The Dow Jones added 0.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite moved up nearly 1%, also heading toward a potential all-time high of its own.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added just 33 points in after-hours trading, a 0.1% lift. Meanwhile, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures stayed mostly unchanged. This cautious positioning comes ahead of key inflation data that will either keep the rally going or yank it off course.
Investors wait for new inflation data
According to CNBC, Rick Rieder, who heads global fixed income at BlackRock, said, “There is so much money that wants to come into the market that didn’t for a while. And I just think if you don’t have any negative news, the natural gravitational pull is across all these assets.”
On Friday, traders are set to dig into May’s personal consumption expenditures price index. It’s a big deal—this is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect a monthly increase of 0.1%, and a year-over-year jump of 2.3%. The core PCE, which takes out food and energy, is also forecasted to rise 0.1% for the month and 2.6% for the year.
That’s not all investors are watching. The morning will also bring updates on consumer spending, personal income, and consumer sentiment. The results could decide if the recent rally continues or runs out of steam.
Despite the Fed still dancing around its rate strategy and ongoing geopolitical pressure, the stock market has clawed its way back from its lows earlier this year. All three major indexes have posted solid weekly gains: the S&P 500 and Dow are up over 2%, and the Nasdaq has jumped more than 3%.
Bitcoin trapped in tight range as whales unload
While equities flirt with records, Bitcoin is stuck pacing the same ten-foot circle it’s been walking since May 9. The price has mostly bounced between $102,000 and $112,000, with just one brief spike beyond that ceiling to hit a new high, still barely ahead of its last one. It hasn’t managed a strong rally, despite an insane amount of interest from institutions.
Just this Wednesday, Bitcoin ETFs recorded their 12th straight day of inflows and are now heading toward their ninth positive week in eleven, pulling in $3.5 billion just this month, according to Coin Metrics. Yet Bitcoin itself has only risen by 2%.
Markus Thielen, who leads 10x Research, explained why. “We are not seeing a lot of real demand right now because the demand has been almost perfectly offset by the selling from these larger wallets,” he said.
Markus called it an “orderly” change of ownership, where old megawhales are taking their time to sell off coins to new buyers like ETFs and corporate treasuries. The wallets that are buying the most this year? Those holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC. CryptoQuant classifies these holders as dolphins, and Julio Moreno, the firm’s head of research, says that many ETFs probably fall into this group.
Whales and miners control the game
The biggest players in crypto right now are still whales (wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC) and megawhales (10,000+ BTC). But they’re not buying. They’ve been net sellers since the start of the year. Retail wallets, those holding less than one full bitcoin, are also dumping. It’s the dolphins who are stepping in to soak up that pressure. But that balance is fragile.
Julio said that companies like BlackRock and Strategy (the company formerly known as MicroStrategy) have built large positions using hundreds of wallets. BlackRock holds around 550 wallets, each averaging 1,290 BTC. Strategy controls about 490 wallets, with an average of 927 BTC per wallet. But even with these holdings spread out, they’re considered large buyers behind most of the recent ETF flows.
Despite all the buying, price movement has stayed muted. That’s because some of the biggest bitcoin reserves on the planet are still in the hands of Chinese miners. Between 2013 and 2021, China controlled up to 75% of the global hashrate. Out of the 19.9 million bitcoins mined so far, between 11 and 15 million came from China-based miners. Of that, about 5 million are still under their control, according to Markus.
Normally, during a big price rally, these wallets start dumping on exchanges. This time, they haven’t. “It seems that these wallets are holding – holding tight and only releasing as many bitcoin as can be scooped up by ETFs and by Strategy,” Markus said.
Strategy, now focused on corporate crypto adoption, has slowed down its BTC buying this year. That’s mostly because its stock premium has narrowed, and competition from other treasury buyers is rising fast. Markus warned that “if megawhale selling accelerates further, a deeper correction is likely.” On the other hand, if those big sellers back off and whale accumulation starts to rise, the next leg up might finally begin.
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