XRP Leverage Dropped 78% Since July: The Setup Hints at History

The XRP derivatives market is undergoing a notable rebalancing process. Meanwhile, activity on the XRP Ledger is at its highest level in the past year.

What do these new factors mean for XRP’s price in the coming weeks?

What Does The Drop in The Estimated Leverage Ratio Signal For XRP’s Price?

Data from CryptoQuant shows that XRP’s Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance has fallen sharply from around 0.59 in mid-July 2025 to just 0.13 now.

Analysts calculate this ratio by dividing an exchange’s open interest by its coin reserves. It reflects the average leverage users use. The sharp decline indicates that most highly leveraged positions have been flushed out.

At the same time, XRP’s open interest on Binance stands at only around $375 million. This level is significantly lower than the peaks recorded over the past year.

In theory, this is a positive signal. When speculative positions decline and leverage drops, the market becomes less “overloaded.” As a result, the risk of cascading liquidations decreases significantly. In other words, the market structure is becoming more stable.

“The main takeaway is that speculative pressure has eased significantly. Binance’s XRP derivatives market now looks much less overheated, potentially creating a cleaner setup for its next major move,” explained Amr Taha, an analyst at CryptoQuant.

Meanwhile, data from Artemis Analytics shows that total weekly transactions on the XRP Ledger have surged to 19 million. This marks the highest level observed since the beginning of 2025.

The spike in transaction activity may stem from Ripple’s recent developments that have attracted investor attention.

For example, earlier this month, Ripple expanded Ripple Payments into a fully integrated end-to-end platform. In addition, Mastercard added Ripple to its Crypto Partner Program. During the same period, Ripple has actively pursued licenses in markets such as Brazil and Australia.

In summary, the combination of lower leverage, reduced open interest, and strong on-chain activity can be seen as ideal conditions for a sustainable price recovery.

The reason is that when prices rise under these conditions, buying pressure comes from real demand rather than leverage. Therefore, the uptrend is less likely to be disrupted by liquidations.

However, the latest technical analysis from BeInCrypto indicates that XRP is facing a concerning head-and-shoulders pattern.

For the bullish scenario to remain intact, XRP must hold the $1.37–$1.40 support zone. If this level is lost, the neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern will come into focus, and a 16% correction could materialize.