Democratic Lawmakers Move to Ban War and Assassination Prediction Contracts

Democratic Lawmakers Representative Mike Levin and Senator Adam Schiff have introduced the DEATH BETS Act. This is a bicameral legislation to ban prediction market contracts tied to war, assassination, terrorism, or an individual’s death.

Levin noted that over $500 million was wagered on the timing of US military strikes on Iran, highlighting the scale of trading activity on war-related prediction contracts.

Why it matters:

• Prediction markets have gained notable traction, with platforms experiencing record activity as traders bet on various outcomes.
• However, amid record growth, concerns about insider trading on prediction markets are also increasing.
• Senator Schiff argued that allowing wagers on conflicts and casualties where insiders can exploit classified intelligence for personal gain puts national security at risk and incentivizes violence.

The details:

• The bill would amend the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) to codify an outright prohibition.
• Representative Levin previously raised concerns over offshore “death contracts” being offered. This included contracts linked to the removal of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro and the capture of Myrnohad.
• CFTC Chair Selig had signaled plans to rewrite prediction market rules before the legislation dropped.

The big picture: