Israel Indicts Two Over Secret Bets on Military Operations via Polymarket

Israel indicted two citizens for allegedly using classified information to place wagers on the prediction platform Polymarket, according to a statement made by authorities on Thursday. 

The news renewed concern that prediction markets make it easier to engage in insider trading for profit. 

Israeli Agencies Target Military Insider Betting Case

In a joint statement, the Israeli Defense Ministry, Israel Police, and the Shin Bet said the suspects — an army reservist and a civilian — were arrested on suspicion of placing bets on Polymarket about potential military operations. 

“This was allegedly based on classified information to which the reservists were exposed through their military duties,” the statement said.

The announcement comes weeks after Israeli public broadcaster Kan News reported on the matter. The outlet said security agencies had opened an investigation into the suspected misuse of classified information within the defense establishment.

The report alleged that the information was used to place bets on Polymarket, including on the timing of Israel’s opening strike on Iran during the 12-day war in June 2025.

These platforms have seen a surge in wagers on geopolitics, crypto, politics, and sports. Although marketed as alternatives to traditional gambling, their structure closely mirrors conventional betting markets.

Users buy and sell shares tied to real-world outcomes, with prices ranging from $0.01 to $1.00 reflecting the market’s implied probability of each outcome.

Their accessibility, pseudonymity, and ease of use have also prompted concerns about potential insider trading and misconduct.

Are Prediction Markets Exploitable Profit Machines?

Since the start of the year, several incidents have emerged, raising questions about whether individuals with confidential information are using these platforms to generate substantial profits.

In early January, a cluster of newly created Polymarket accounts placed large, precisely timed wagers on contracts predicting Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office. 

These wallets netted more than $630,000 in combined profits just hours before reports of his capture broke.

A similar controversy emerged last December. A Polymarket user earned nearly $1 million by placing highly accurate bets on Google’s 2025 Year in Search rankings. The precision prompted speculation about possible insider access. 

The wallet achieved an unusually high success rate, correctly predicting nearly all outcomes, including several low-probability results. However, there is no evidence confirming any internal connection.

Together, the incidents have intensified debate over the role of prediction markets. Critics question whether they function as efficient information aggregators or enable the monetization of privileged, non-public information.