Bitcoin’s ‘2022 Redux’ Fears Are Superficial, Argues TexasWest Capital CEO

• Structural Divergence: While the chart mirrors 2022 optics, analyst Christopher Inks identifies a completed five-wave "washout" rather than the structural breakdown that defined the Terra collapse.

• Catalyst Mismatch: The current sell-off is characterized as a "degrossing" event (risk reduction) rather than a liquidity crisis, supported by coiled price action in 2-year Treasury notes.

• The Roadmap: Inks is looking for a multi-week consolidation with declining volume on pullbacks to confirm a "terminal shakeout" rather than a bearish continuation.

Bitcoin’s violent drawdown from all-time highs has crypto Twitter drawing anxious parallels to the 2022 bear market. The visual similarities are undeniable, yet some veteran technicians argue that beneath the surface, the market structure tells a fundamentally different story.

Christopher Inks, CEO of TexasWest Capital, posits that the current price action represents a completed positioning washout rather than the systemic collapse that drove the 2022 unwind.

Wave Structure: Completion vs. ContinuationIn a series of technical updates, Inks challenges the bearish consensus by analyzing the Elliott Wave structure of the decline. "One of the differences between the current drop off the ATH and the 2022 drop... is that we just appear to have completed 5 waves down," Inks noted.

He contrasts this with the 2022 sequence, where the market had already finished a five-wave impulse and a three-wave correction before breaking down further. On his weekly BTCUSD chart, the current move maps as a finished decline into early 2026, implying the next phase is likely corrective or constructive base-building rather than an immediate continuation lower.

Crisis vs. De-grossingBeyond the charts, the macro catalysts differ sharply. The 2022 crash was a reflexive shock triggered by the TerraUSD (UST) depeg—a structural failure that impaired liquidity across the entire ecosystem.

Conversely, Inks frames last week’s selling as "degrossing"—a standard risk-off reduction of exposure. "These are two wholly different market moves," Inks wrote. "If you’re comparing two events then you should compare how they occurred and not just that the price action looks kinda similar."

The Macro ConfirmationSupporting this thesis is the behavior of the bond market. Inks pointed to 2-year Treasury note futures, observing that yields remained "coiled" rather than breaking out, suggesting the crypto sell-off was "pre-resolution positioning rather than post-crisis fallout."

What to Watch: The Base-Building PhaseDespite the constructive structural view, Inks is not calling a definitive bottom just yet. Bitcoin recently failed to reclaim a weekly close inside the prior range near $75,000, leaving the door open for volatility.

For confidence to return, Inks’ roadmap requires patience:

• Time: The low needs to hold for "the next 2–3 weeks."

• Volume: He wants to see "declining volumes on the pullbacks."

• Structure: A higher low on the weekly timeframe and "compression below resistance instead of rejection."

Short-Term OutlookOn the lower timeframes (1-hour chart), Bitcoin is consolidating sideways around a weekly pivot following Friday's sharp recovery. "Takes time to build confidence after something like that," Inks cautioned, advising traders to prefer base-building over a "straight up" V-shaped recovery.

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $68,639.