USD/KRW: Downside risks build as flows improve – OCBC

OCBC analysts Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that USD/KRW has traded lower on Dollar weakness, stronger JPY, pro-risk sentiment and sizeable foreign inflows into Korean equities, with the KOSPI outperforming regionally. They argue strong fundamentals, including AI-led electronics and semiconductor export demand, should keep supporting KRW.

AI cycle and inflows back KRW recovery

"USDKRW traded lower this week, amid the pullback in USD, stronger gains in JPY while pro-risk sentiment and foreign inflows to local equities this week (+US$1.018bn) further supported the appreciation."

"We had long argued that strong economic fundamentals including the AI-led electronics upcycle, strong semiconductor export demand (first 10 days exports jumped 44.4% YoY) and KOSPI outperformance should continue to add to KRW’s recovery momentum."

"Not forgetting that President Lee has earlier said that he expects the USDKRW to fall to around 1400 in about 1 – 2 months at a press conference (21 Jan)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)