Is blockchain facing a quantum threat right now?

Venture capital firm a16z crypto research partner and associate professor in the Department of Computer Science at Georgetown University, Justin Thaler, has urged the cryptocurrency industry to resist panic over quantum computing threats.

The research partner argues that the timeline for cryptographically relevant quantum computers remains distant and that premature migration to post-quantum cryptography could introduce more immediate risks than the theoretical danger itself.

Is blockchain facing a quantum threat right now?

In a detailed blog post that was also shared on X, Thaler challenged what he described as frequently exaggerated predictions about quantum computing capabilities. 

He defined a cryptographically relevant quantum computer as a fault-tolerant machine capable of breaking the secp256k1 elliptic curve used in Bitcoin and Ethereum, or RSA-2048 encryption, within approximately one month.

Thaler wrote, “We are nowhere near a cryptographically relevant quantum computer by any reasonable reading of public milestones and resource estimates.”

Based on publicly available milestones, Thaler assessed such a breakthrough in the 2020s as highly unlikely, pointing to the U.S. government’s 2035 target for widespread post-quantum cryptography adoption in federal systems as a more reasonable planning horizon. 

However, he stated that “it is not a forecast that a cryptographically relevant quantum computer will exist by then.”

The a16z position distinguishes between different categories of cryptographic systems and their respective vulnerabilities. 

While Thaler acknowledged that post-quantum encryption demands immediate deployment due to harvest-now-decrypt-later (HNDL) attacks already underway, he stated that digital signatures used in Bitcoin and Ethereum face no such risk because blockchain data is inherently public. 

Zero-knowledge proofs generated before quantum computers arrive would also remain trustworthy, he said.

What are blockchain stakeholders doing about the quantum threat?

While Thaler makes his submission on what stakeholders should be prioritizing, players in the blockchain space have been making moves in preparation for the post-quantum phase, with the Ethereum Foundation announcing a newly formed post-quantum team. 

Coinbase has also created an independent advisory board on quantum computing and blockchain. The board comprises industry experts and researchers, one of whom is Justin Drake of the Ethereum Foundation. 

The board is tasked with assessing the implications of quantum computing for the blockchain ecosystem and providing clear, independent guidance to the broader community.

Franklin Bi, general partner at Pantera Capital, reacted to the Ethereum Foundation’s PQ team announcement by stating that blockchain systems may be better prepared to adopt and adapt to the post-quantum phase compared to traditional financial institutions on Wall Street. 

He wrote, “People are over-estimating how quickly Wall Street will adapt to post-quantum cryptography. Like any systemic software upgrade, it’ll be slow & chaotic with single points of failure for years. Traditional systems are only as strong as their weakest links.”

In making his case for blockchains, he stated, “Equally, people are under-estimating the unique ability of blockchains to enact a system-wide software upgrade at global scale,” adding that if done successfully and timely, blockchain networks can evolve into post-quantum “safe havens” for data and assets.

What does Thaler recommend?

Thaler left some recommendations stating that all stakeholders, companies, governments, and policymakers should “take the quantum threat seriously,” but added that they should not “act under the presumption that a cryptographically relevant quantum computer will arrive before 2030.” 

He stated that stakeholders should deploy hybrid encryption immediately, especially in places where long-term confidentiality matters and costs are tolerable. Thaler also wrote that “Blockchains don’t need to rush post-quantum signatures — but should start planning now.”

For privacy chains that encrypt or hide transaction details, Thaler stated that they should prioritize a transition sooner if performance is tolerable.

Another point that he reiterated is that stakeholders should prioritize implementation security and not quantum threat mitigation in the near term. He called for more funding for quantum computing development while also trying to get people to treat new information as progress reports to critically assess, not prompts for abrupt action for now. 

Thaler acknowledged that there will be innovations and developments that may shorten the timelines, but also said bottlenecks may also arise that may push the timeline forward.

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