OpenAI faces make-or-break year as cash burn surges and monetization pressure grows

OpenAI is in a tight spot. This year, it either starts making real money or things start falling apart. The days of endless funding with no results are done. Sam Altman is now being pushed into survival mode.

OpenAI has already burned through $9 billion last year, and analysts think that number will jump to $17 billion this year. Deutsche Bank said this is a make-or-break moment for AI companies that only sell models. And they said OpenAI is the one with the most at risk.

The company claims to have around 800 million weekly users, but almost none of them are paying.

That’s a problem. All while the company is stuck in commitments worth $1.4 trillion for data centers. It doesn’t matter how flashy the tech is, someone’s got to pay the bills. And right now, the math just doesn’t work.

Cash burn explodes while business model still missing

Even though OpenAI pulled in over $20 billion in revenue last year, up from $6 billion in 2024, it’s still deep in the red. The company raised billions to try to patch the hole.

SoftBank gave them $22.5 billion late last year, after already committing $40 billion earlier. They’ve also cut deals with Microsoft and Nvidia, and some estimates now peg the company’s value at around $500 billion.

But Adrian and Stefan from Deutsche Bank said the company’s edge is “shallow.” The big players have other businesses bringing in steady money. OpenAI doesn’t. That makes the runway shorter.

“Its path to success appears to be looking narrower and narrower,” they said. And with an IPO likely coming late this year or early 2027, the pressure is only getting worse. Some believe the public listing could push the company to a $1 trillion valuation. But it hasn’t happened yet.

To make things worse, Apple walked away. On January 12, Apple said it would use Google’s AI instead. Then on January 16, OpenAI said it would start testing ads in ChatGPT. That’s the same thing Sam said last year would be a last resort. Well, that resort just opened.

Investors focus on costs as rivals fight for attention

Dimitri Zabelin, a research analyst at PitchBook, said things have shifted. Investors don’t care about scale anymore. They want to see real returns, or at least some proof that the numbers can make sense soon.

“The key question is whether enterprise monetization, pricing power, and inference cost declines can outpace rising compute intensity,” Dimitri said.

He also said that OpenAI still has deep access to capital and compute partners, because of long-term contracts and support for its expansion plans. But the company’s not alone. Anthropic, started by ex-OpenAI staff, might go public too. It has lower costs, actual paying customers, mostly coders, and a smarter pricing setup. Some say it’s the only independent AI startup that has a real shot without crashing into a wall.

Meanwhile, the market is shaky. Some think the Federal Reserve will cut rates soon, which could push even more cash into the AI space. Others are already worried this is turning into a bubble. S&P Global says funding might still grow.

But Adrian and Stefan don’t buy it. They said smaller firms won’t survive the growing costs of compute. They even suggested that Perplexity and others might get scooped up by the big platforms by the end of the year.

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