Bitcoin could drop to $75,000 as market enters a downturn phase in 2026

The cryptocurrency market appears to be headed for a lengthy rough patch, but this time around, things look different than previous crashes, according to Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald.

Analyst Brett Knoblauch said in a recent year-end assessment that Bitcoin, currently trading at $87,660.94, is probably entering what traders call a crypto winter. The digital currency reached its high point about 85 days ago, and Knoblauch thinks selling pressure might stick around for several more months. Prices could potentially drop to around $75,000, which happens to be close to where Strategy’s average purchase price sits.

But here’s where this downturn differs from earlier ones. Knoblauch doesn’t expect the kind of widespread panic selling or company collapses that marked past market crashes. The reason? Big institutions have replaced everyday investors as the main players driving market moves.

What’s happening beneath the surface matters more than price charts right now, the analyst explained. Activity in areas like decentralized finance, asset tokenization, and basic crypto infrastructure keeps expanding even while token values slide.

Tokenized assets triple to $18.5 billion

This year, the total value of these tokenized goods, which include stocks, credit products, and U.S. Treasury securities, was $18.5 billion. That is three times as much as it was initially. As more financial institutions test blockchain-based settlement systems, Cantor projects that this amount will surpass $50 billion in the upcoming year. 

Trading patterns are also changing. Decentralized exchanges, which enable users to transact without middlemen, are gaining market share over traditional cryptocurrency platforms. Cantor believes these decentralized venues will continue to grow even if overall trading declines along with Bitcoin prices in 2026. Particularly for perpetual futures contracts, the technology is now more efficient and user-friendly.

These changes are mostly the result of new regulations in Washington. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or CLARITY, was recently passed by Congress. The conditions under which digital assets are categorized as commodities rather than securities are outlined in this law. Additionally, it grants the Commodity Futures Trading Commission authority over spot cryptocurrency markets upon fulfillment of specific decentralization requirements.

There should be fewer regulatory surprises that frighten markets if there are clear legal guidelines. Investment firms and banks can now enter the market with greater assurance. Additionally, the rules provide legitimate decentralized platforms with a road map for maintaining compliance, which has proven to be a major obstacle up to this point.

Sports betting markets surge past $5.9 billion

Cantor emphasized additional noteworthy advancements. Particularly for sports betting, online prediction markets have expanded significantly. Over half of the volume, which totaled over $5.9 billion, was handled by DraftKings in the third quarter. In contrast to traditional sportsbooks, companies like Robinhood, Coinbase, and Gemini have entered this market by providing more equitable systems based on order books.

The outlook isn’t without concerns, though. Bitcoin currently sits just 17% above Strategy’s average buying price. If prices fall below that threshold, it could rattle investor confidence, even though Cantor doubts the company would dump its holdings. Digital asset trusts have also slowed their buying as both prices and premiums have squeezed together.

It’s unlikely that next year will see the rapid expansion that cryptocurrency enthusiasts anticipate. Even though prices are declining, the foundation being built, stronger infrastructure, and greater participation from important institutions seem more solid than before.

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