Bitcoin's four-year cycle 'is dead' following rising institutional demand: K33 Research

• K33 analyst says that Bitcoin will not continue its historic four-year cycle pattern.
• The firm's Head of Research, Vetle Lunde, notes that spot Bitcoin ETFs and pro-crypto regulations have altered market dynamics.
• Bitcoin has retraced to $123,500 after hitting an all-time high of $126,199 earlier this week.

Bitcoin's (BTC) surge to a new all-time high of $126,199 this week shows that its traditional four-year cycle pattern has become outdated, according to K33 Research.

Bitcoin has entered a new regime, four-year cycle dead

Bitcoin's march to a new all-time high on Monday confirms that the top cryptocurrency has broken away from its historic four-year cycle, according to Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33, in a report on Tuesday.

The report stated that Bitcoin's ongoing rally has lasted about 1,051 days since its 2022 bottom, a duration that closely mirrors previous bull market expansions of around 1,060 days.

Lunde went on to dismiss the traditional four-year cycle framework, arguing that Bitcoin now operates within a new structural pattern shaped by institutional adoption, ETF inflows and positive crypto regulations.

"We firmly reject the outdated four-year cycle framework, arguing that Bitcoin has entered a new structural regime shaped by institutional adoption, ETF integration, and macro policy shifts," wrote Lunde.

The report highlighted that previous market peaks were fueled by expectations of institutional adoption, a dream that has materialized in 2025. Unlike in 2017 or 2021, today's market includes the participation of major institutions, such as BlackRock, which manages roughly $100 billion in Bitcoin.

"In 2025, dreams have become reality. Bitcoin is a material part of the global institutional market," he added.

The report also mentioned that BTC saw its strongest accumulation of 2025 last week, with combined exposure across US ETFs, perpetual futures, and CME contracts rising by 63,083 BTC. However, such sharp rises in exposure have often coincided with local highs this year, although the latest surge follows a slight pullback in September.

Bitcoin hit a milestone of $126,199 on Monday across both US Dollar and Euro denominations.

Spot and futures trading activity also skyrocketed, with average daily spot volume climbing to a six-month high of $4.7 billion over the past week. Perpetual futures open interest (OI) rose by 16,642 BTC, marking the largest weekly increase since mid-July and pushing total OI back to its yearly highs from September.

Bitcoin is trading near $123,500 at the time of publication, up 1.5% over the past 24 hours.