Why $50 XRP By December 2025 Isn’t ‘Hopium’ If ETFs Get Greenlight: Analyst

XRP’s price outlook is in focus as the US Securities and Exchange Commission lines up decisions on multiple spot ETF applications in late October 2025. Analysts say the outcome of that cluster could decide whether billions of dollars in institutional funds flow into the token before year-end.

Filings Point To October Decision

Reports show that six issuers have active S-1 filings or amendments waiting for review. The list includes Bitwise, WisdomTree, 21Shares, Canary Capital, CoinShares, and Franklin Templeton.

The timing of these filings, following the SEC’s dismissal of its case against Ripple, has raised expectations that issuers are preparing for a launch window tied to October’s calendar.

Demand Shock Could Stress Supply

Industry insiders project that more than $5 billion could enter through spot ETFs in the first month alone. Estimates run as high as $10–18 billion by the end of 2025 if approvals are granted and appetite is strong.

XRP’s effective supply is limited, with about 35 billion tokens still locked in escrow and much of the circulating amount held by exchanges and large investors. This thin float means a sudden demand wave could trigger sharp price swings.

Veteran Bitcoin investor Pumpius has tied these supply and demand pressures to a bold forecast. He believes that if ETFs launch in the fourth quarter and inflows reach $10–18 billion, XRP could climb to $50 by December 2025 — and it is not “hopium“.

From today’s price of $2.80, that would be a 1,680% rise, lifting market capitalization from $168 billion to about $3 trillion.

Pumpius says the setup mirrors Bitcoin and Ethereum before their ETF approvals, pointing to the recent launch of XRP futures on CME and Coinbase Derivatives as proof that institutional infrastructure is already in place.

If the SEC approves all spot XRP ETFs by October, the path to $50 by December ’25 isn’t hopium, it’s math + market structure.

Read this before everyone else catches on. pic.twitter.com/2bNjEbbnIp

— Pumpius (@pumpius) September 3, 2025 

Many market participants have pushed back against the forecast, arguing that the timeline is too short for XRP to grow that much.

Critics on social platforms point out the difficulty of scaling from a $168 billion market to $3 trillion in just over a year. Some also question whether early ETF inflows will meet the higher-end projections cited by Pumpius.

Should the SEC approve the filings in October, ETFs could channel regulated exposure for pensions, wealth managers, RIAs, and corporate treasuries.

That would test XRP’s liquidity, potentially forcing larger holders to adjust positions as new demand arrives. If the applications are denied, expectations for a breakout rally would likely be pushed further out.

For now, XRP continues to trade at $2.84. With the SEC’s October cluster approaching, traders are weighing whether the path to $50 is a realistic outcome or just a bold scenario tied to one investor’s high-stakes call.

Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView