Is Bitcoin Overheated? Key Signal Flashes Warning Similar To 2021 And 2024 Market Tops

Bitcoin is undergoing a sharp correction after losing the $115K support level, triggering a wave of uncertainty across the market. Following weeks of consolidation in a tight range, BTC has broken down, fueling debates among analysts about the asset’s short-term direction. Some experts warn that Bitcoin could face further declines as investors take profits and sentiment turns cautious. Others maintain a more optimistic view, suggesting that the correction is a healthy pause before BTC makes another attempt to reclaim its all-time highs.

Key data from CryptoQuant adds another layer to the analysis. Metrics indicate that Bitcoin is currently in an “overheated” state, with valuation indicators signaling excessive bullish momentum. This suggests that the current consolidation phase may extend further as the market works to reset. Until demand stabilizes and new liquidity flows in, Bitcoin could continue to trade in a volatile environment, with the $112K–$115K range acting as a critical battleground between bulls and bears.

With the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and global macroeconomic factors still in play, Bitcoin’s next major move will likely depend on a combination of market sentiment, institutional demand, and the broader risk appetite of investors in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model Signals Overvaluation

Top analyst Darkfost recently shared insights on X, highlighting the significance of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow reversion (S2F) chart as a reliable indicator to assess Bitcoin’s valuation cycles. According to Darkfost, when the S2F metric rises above a value of 3, it typically indicates that Bitcoin is entering an overheated phase, signaling a high probability of a market correction. Currently, the S2F value is approaching this critical threshold, prompting Darkfost to caution investors that it may be an opportune moment to lock in profits before a deeper correction unfolds.

Darkfost’s analysis points to historical patterns where similar S2F readings have preceded substantial price declines. In September 2021, Bitcoin dropped from $63,500 to $30,800 after the S2F metric crossed into the overvaluation zone. Again, in November 2021, BTC crashed from $67,000 to $15,800 following a peak S2F signal. More recently, in March 2024, Bitcoin corrected sharply from $73,000 to $54,000 after entering overheated territory.

This preset alert system, designed for long-term market participants, serves as a strategic tool to help investors navigate Bitcoin’s volatile cycles. While the current correction might seem abrupt, Darkfost emphasizes that such pullbacks are essential for the market to reset and build a sustainable foundation for future growth. Investors are urged to remain cautious and monitor the S2F chart closely as Bitcoin navigates this critical phase.

BTC Struggles To Reclaim The $115K Level

Bitcoin is attempting to recover after its recent decline, currently trading around $115,019 as shown in the 8-hour chart. The price has managed to bounce from the $112K support zone but faces strong resistance at the $115,724 level, which previously acted as a key support during the two-week consolidation range in July.

The 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) are now positioned just above the current price, adding to the overhead resistance. The 200-day SMA around $110,677 continues to provide solid support, keeping the overall uptrend intact for now. However, BTC must reclaim the $115,724 level and consolidate above it to regain bullish momentum.

Volume has been relatively low during the recent bounce, suggesting a lack of strong buying conviction. If Bitcoin fails to break above the $115K resistance decisively, it risks falling back to test the $112K zone again. On the upside, a successful breakout above $115,724 could open the path to retest the $122,077 all-time high resistance.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView