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WTI depreciates amid thin trade on US Presidents’ Day, inches lower to near $77.80

Source Fxstreet

WTI price corrected after registering gains for two successive sessions.
Crude oil prices depreciate amid expectations that the Fed will maintain its current interest rate.
Israel has signaled the potential for additional military operations in the southern city of Gaza.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price retraces its recent gains, possibly due to a technical correction, amid subdued trading activity due to the Presidents’ Day holiday in the United States. WTI price dips lower to around $77.80 per barrel during Asian trading hours on Monday. Additionally, market participants are expected to closely monitor demand conditions in China after returning from the week-long holiday.

Crude oil prices encounter challenges amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its current interest rate, following the previous week of complex data. Higher consumer prices coupled with declining retail sales have reinforced the market sentiment that the Fed will abstain from rate cuts in both March and May. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates roughly a 52% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in June.

Geopolitical tensions persist in the Middle East following an Israeli military raid on Gaza's second-largest hospital, causing it to cease functioning according to the United Nations (UN) public health agency. Israel has indicated the possibility of further military action in Gaza's southern city. Additionally, Iran-led Houthi fighters have attacked an India-bound oil vessel.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 downwards in its latest monthly oil market report. The slowdown in global oil demand growth is partly attributed to developments in China.

The report highlights a tightening of oil market balances in January, primarily due to supply disruptions in the United States and Canada. Despite ongoing production cuts by OPEC+ nations, the IEA anticipates a modest increase in inventories in the first quarter of the year.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Spot gold is trading near $3,999, its third consecutive lower daily low, after a 5.00% 10-year yield and a 102.85 dollar index raised the odds of a December hike to 87%. But the selling is not coming from the strategic holders: managed-money net longs fell to 324 tonnes, a 21-week low, and Goldman Sachs attributes roughly 95% of five weeks of selling to non-reportable positions. ETFs still hold a record 4,256 tonnes and central banks bought 321 tonnes in Q3. The table below sets the triggers, directions and levels.

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