US Energy Information Administration less optimistic about US oil production than IEA – Commerzbank

The US Energy Information Administration has not made any significant changes to its forecasts, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

The EIA expects US net crude oil imports to fall by more than 20%

“It predicts that US crude oil production will increase by an average of 280 thousand barrels per day next year, slightly less than previously expected. At 13.6 million barrels per day, the production level at the end of 2025 is expected to be the same as at the end of 2024. US oil production including NGLs is expected to increase by 390 thousand barrels per day next year.”

“This casts more doubt on the IEA's optimistic production forecast, which expects the US to increase output by 240 thousand barrels per day. The EIA also expects US net crude oil imports to fall by more than 20% year-on-year to 1.9 million barrels per day next year, which would be the lowest level since 1971.”

“The reason for this is the continued rise in crude oil production with a simultaneous drop in crude oil processing.”