Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the $2,472-2,471 area or a nearly two-week low and oscillates in a narrow trading band during the Asian session on Thursday. The downside, however, remains cushioned in the wake of rising bets for a larger interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed), bolstered by a US labor market report showing that job openings fell to a three-and-a-half-year low in July. This comes on top of soft US manufacturing data on Tuesday and raises concerns about the health of the economy, which tempers investors' appetite for riskier assets and should further act as a tailwind for the safe-haven precious metal.
Despite the aforementioned supportive fundamental backdrop, traders seem reluctant to place aggressive bullish bets around the Gold price ahead of the crucial US monthly employment details – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. In the meantime, Thursday's US economic docket – featuring the release of the ADP report on private sector employment and the usual Weekly Jobless Claims – will be looked upon for short-term trading opportunities. Nevertheless, expectations for an imminent start of the Fed's policy-easing cycle might continue to lend support to the XAU/USD and support prospects for the emergence of dip-buying at lower levels.
From a technical perspective, any subsequent strength beyond the $2,500 psychological mark is likely to confront some resistance near the $2,524-2,425 supply zone ahead of the all-time peak, around the $2,531-2,532 area touched last month. Some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls and set the stage for the resumption of the recent well-established uptrend amid positive oscillators on the daily chart.
On the flip side, the $2,471-2,470 horizontal zone seems to have emerged as an immediate strong support, below which the Gold price could slide to the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently pegged near the $2,435 region. A convincing break below the latter might prompt some technical selling and expose the 100-day SMA, around the $2,386 area, with some intermediate support near the $2,400 round figure.
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.