WTI stays near $63.00 as traders await geopolitical developments
- WTI steadies on US holiday, with muted Asian trade amid Lunar New Year closures.
- Traders await Tuesday’s Geneva US-Iran talks, as Tehran signals nuclear concessions if sanctions are addressed.
- Oil prices could face challenges as OPEC+ reportedly plans to resume output hikes from April.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) edged lower after opening above its previous close, trading around $62.80 per barrel during the Asian hours on Monday. Crude Oil prices were little changed as traders remained cautious amid ongoing geopolitical developments. There will be no contract settlement as United States (US) markets closed for Presidents’ Day, while trading activity in Asia is subdued as China, South Korea and Taiwan observe Lunar New Year holidays.
Focus turns to the second round of US-Iran talks scheduled in Geneva on Tuesday, with Tehran signaling readiness to make nuclear concessions if Washington addresses sanctions. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned of possible strikes should negotiations fail, as the US boosts its regional military presence.
US-brokered Russia-Ukraine negotiations are also set to resume Tuesday, though expectations for a quick resolution, and a return of Russian Oil to global markets remain limited. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, on Sunday, accused Ukraine of delaying the restart of a pipeline transporting Russian Oil to Eastern Europe via its territory, aiming to pressure Hungary over its opposition to Ukraine’s prospective European Union (EU) membership.
Oil prices may face headwinds from ample global supply. Reuters reported that OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies) is leaning toward resuming output increases from April after a three-month pause, in preparation for peak summer demand.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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