WTI Price Forecast: Climbs to two-week top, above mid-$58.00s amid geopolitical risks
- WTI trades with a positive bias for the fourth straight day amid a combination of supporting factors.
- Rising geopolitical tensions and a broadly weaker USD continue to act as a tailwind for the commodity.
- The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for a further appreciating move.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices touch a nearly two-week high, around the $58.55 region on Wednesday, and look to build on the recent recovery from the lowest level since May, touched last week. The upbeat US economic growth figures released on Tuesday, along with the risk of disruptions to oil supply from Venezuela and Russia, continue to act as a tailwind for the commodity.
Meanwhile, bets for further policy easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and concerns about the central bank's independence, amid the growing pressure from US President Donald Trump to cut rates further, continue to weigh on the US Dollar (USD. In fact, the USD Index (DXY) slides to a fresh low since early October and benefits the USD-denominated commodities, including Crude Oil prices.
The commodity remains below the descending 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), pegged around the $59.00 mark, which might cap the upside. The EMA continues to edge lower, keeping the broader tone soft. Measured from the $62.37 high to the $54.83 low, the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $58.60 acts as an immediate hurdle, with the 61.8% at $59.49 next on strength. A daily close above the first barrier could shift the short-term tone and expose the subsequent resistance.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned positive and is expanding, indicating the MACD line has crossed above the signal line near the zero mark. This shift suggests strengthening bullish momentum after weeks of hesitation. The RSI at 51.80 stands neutral and edges higher, reinforcing an improving tone. If momentum builds, bulls could challenge overhead barriers, while failure to reclaim the average would keep recovery attempts shallow.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
WTI daily chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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