Copper hits record high near $11,800 amid strong start to 2025 – Commerzbank

Copper started the week at a new record high of almost $11,800 per ton, up 33% on the start of the year. China impressed with good export figures: exports were almost 6% higher than last year, giving China its third-largest monthly trade surplus ever. In addition, new statements from the Politburo fuelled hopes of supportive economic measures in China, the most important sales market, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

China’s export strength boosts commodity optimism

"The Copper-specific figures offered little support: on the one hand, Copper ore imports recovered somewhat after weak October figures. They were almost 13% higher than in the previous year and almost 8% higher in the first eleven months than in the same period of the previous year."

"It must be acknowledged, however, that China's refined Copper production in the period up to October was 12.5% higher than in the same period last year, growing even more strongly than imports of Copper ores, which in turn explains the shortage of raw materials at smelters. On the other hand, imports of Copper and Copper products were disappointing: imports slipped below 430 thousand tons in November, reaching their lowest level since February."

"In the first eleven months, they were 4.5% below the previous year. The weak imports dampen optimism somewhat, as China is the world's largest importer of refined Copper, despite a significant increase in production in recent years: according to the Australian Department of Industry, Science and Resources, the country accounted for 42% of global imports in 2024"