AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Tests nine-day support below 96.50 ahead of RBA policy decision

Source Fxstreet
  • AUD/JPY tests the immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 96.34.
  • The 14-day RSI remains just below the 50 mark, reinforcing the prevailing bearish momentum.
  • The primary barrier appears around the descending channel’s upper boundary at the 97.00 level.

AUD/JPY remains attempts to recover its recent losses registered in the previous session, hovering around 96.40 during Tuesday’s Asian hours. Traders await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy decision later in the day. The central bank is widely expected to lower its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10%, marking the first rate cut in four years.

A review of the daily chart shows the currency cross trading sideways within a descending channel pattern, indicating a prevailing bearish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly below the 50 level, reinforcing bearish momentum.

However, the AUD/JPY cross continues to trade around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that short-term price momentum is neutral. Further movement will offer a clear understanding of the directional price movement.

The immediate support level for the AUD/JPY cross is at the nine-day EMA of 96.34. A decisive break below this level could lead the currency cross to navigate the region around the five-month low of 94.37, recorded on February 10. Further support appears at the six-month low of 93.59, recorded on September 11, followed by the lower boundary of the descending channel around 93.50.

On the upside, the AUD/JPY cross could approach the upper boundary of the descending channel at the psychological level of 97.00, followed by the 50-day EMA at 97.18. A break above this critical resistance zone could cause the emergence of the bullish bias and support the currency cross to test the six-week high at 98.77 level, which was recorded on January 24.

AUD/JPY: Daily Chart

Australian Dollar PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

  USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD   0.15% 0.17% 0.26% 0.07% 0.24% 0.47% 0.09%
EUR -0.15%   0.02% 0.11% -0.08% 0.10% 0.32% -0.06%
GBP -0.17% -0.02%   0.10% -0.10% 0.08% 0.30% -0.08%
JPY -0.26% -0.11% -0.10%   -0.19% -0.02% 0.19% -0.18%
CAD -0.07% 0.08% 0.10% 0.19%   0.17% 0.40% 0.02%
AUD -0.24% -0.10% -0.08% 0.02% -0.17%   0.22% -0.16%
NZD -0.47% -0.32% -0.30% -0.19% -0.40% -0.22%   -0.37%
CHF -0.09% 0.06% 0.08% 0.18% -0.02% 0.16% 0.37%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
Strong profits, falling shares: bank earnings day one meets a memory-chip rout — with CPI and ASML aheadGoldman Sachs blew past estimates (EPS $17.01 vs $13.09 expected, profit +33%) while JPMorgan missed ($5.75 vs $5.93) and Wells Fargo fell 3% — yet the S&P 500 finished flat at 7,805.45, pinned below its record close as a memory-chip rout (SOX −2.67%, Micron under $1,000) kept the pressure on. Tonight brings the week's decider: US September CPI at 8:30 ET, then Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and ASML before the open. Here are the levels, both cases, and the watch list.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 14, Wed
Goldman Sachs blew past estimates (EPS $17.01 vs $13.09 expected, profit +33%) while JPMorgan missed ($5.75 vs $5.93) and Wells Fargo fell 3% — yet the S&P 500 finished flat at 7,805.45, pinned below its record close as a memory-chip rout (SOX −2.67%, Micron under $1,000) kept the pressure on. Tonight brings the week's decider: US September CPI at 8:30 ET, then Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and ASML before the open. Here are the levels, both cases, and the watch list.
placeholder
US September CPI recap: inflation hits 3.7% as core runs hot — is an October Fed hike back on the table?September CPI landed hot: headline 3.7% y/y, core 2.6% y/y and 0.3% m/m. October hike odds jumped from ~22% to ~37% — yet the dollar faded to 101.74, gold closed higher and the S&P 500 fell 1.11%. Here is the full repricing, the levels and what to watch next.
Author  Irene Q.
Yesterday 05: 52
September CPI landed hot: headline 3.7% y/y, core 2.6% y/y and 0.3% m/m. October hike odds jumped from ~22% to ~37% — yet the dollar faded to 101.74, gold closed higher and the S&P 500 fell 1.11%. Here is the full repricing, the levels and what to watch next.
placeholder
Gold defends $4,100 as BofA targets a break below $4,000 — why the Middle East bid is missingSpot gold flushed to $4,099.89, a whisker above October's $4,090 low, then rebounded to close at $4,138.25 (+0.82%) — even as US CPI ran hot. Bank of America sees gold below $4,000 within three months, citing shrinking demand and official-sector selling. Here are the levels, the drivers and what would flip the script.
Author  Irene Q.
Yesterday 06: 57
Spot gold flushed to $4,099.89, a whisker above October's $4,090 low, then rebounded to close at $4,138.25 (+0.82%) — even as US CPI ran hot. Bank of America sees gold below $4,000 within three months, citing shrinking demand and official-sector selling. Here are the levels, the drivers and what would flip the script.
placeholder
Gold Price Analysis Today | Forex Gold Analysis | XAU/USD Analysis - October 15, 2026Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 15, 2026. Read on for the details.
Author  Mitrade
1 hour ago
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 15, 2026. Read on for the details.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote