USD/CHF extends its downside below 0.9050, focus on US PMI data

Source Fxstreet
  • USD/CHF weakens to 0.9020 in Monday’s early European session. 
  • Traders raised their bets on the Fed rate in September after the recent US PCE data for April. 
  • The Swiss Real Retail Sales rose to 2.7% YoY in April, compared to -0.2% in March.

The USD/CHF pair extends the decline around 0.9020 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The softer US dollar (USD) after the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation data drags the pair lower. Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index for May will be the highlight on Tuesday ahead of the US employment data. 

The uncertainties over the timing of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cut weigh on the US Dollar (USD) after the recent PCE report showed that US inflation remained steady in April. The headline US PCE rose 0.3% MoM in April, matching the unrevised gain in March, the Commerce Department reported on Friday. 

Additionally, the Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.2% MoM in April, compared to a 0.3% gain in March. The core PCE price index climbed 2.8% on a yearly basis, matching the expectation. Investors have priced in nearly a 53% possibility of a Fed rate cut in September, an increase from 49% before the inflation report. Traders will watch the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for fresh impetus, which is expected to improve to 49.8 in May from 49.2 in April. In case of a stronger-than-expected outcome, this might dampen the expectation of the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut this year and cap the downside for the Greenback. 

On Friday, the Swiss Real Retail Sales improved to 2.7% YoY in April from a decline of 0.2% in March. The figure came in better than the estimation and supported the Swiss Franc (CHF) against its rivals. Apart from this, investors will closely watch the development surrounding Middle East geopolitical tensions. The BBC reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's administration reluctantly agreed to President Biden's proposal for a Gaza cease-fire on Sunday. Any signals of rising concerns might further lift safe-haven currencies like the CHF.

USD/CHF

Overview
Today last price 0.9021
Today Daily Change -0.0002
Today Daily Change % -0.02
Today daily open 0.9023
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 0.9089
Daily SMA50 0.9088
Daily SMA100 0.8925
Daily SMA200 0.889
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 0.9069
Previous Daily Low 0.9002
Previous Weekly High 0.9154
Previous Weekly Low 0.9002
Previous Monthly High 0.9225
Previous Monthly Low 0.8988
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.9028
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.9044
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.8994
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.8965
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.8927
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.9061
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.9098
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.9128

 

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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11 hours ago
Bitcoin has dropped back below $88,000 after rolling over from $90,500, with price still trading under the 100-hour Simple Moving Average. The sell-off found a floor at $85,151, and BTC is now consolidating near that base, but rebounds are facing pressure from a bearish trend line around $89,000. Bulls need to retake $88,000–$89,000 to ease downside risk; failure to do so keeps $85,500–$85,000 and then $83,500 in play, with $80,000 as the deeper “line in the sand.” Bitcoin (BTC) is back in damage-control mode after a sharp pullback wiped out recent gains. The price failed to reclaim the $90,000–$90,500 band, rolled over, and slid through $88,500 before briefly dipping under $87,000. Buyers did show up around $85,000, but the rebound so far looks more like stabilization than a clear trend reversal. Bitcoin dips hard, finds a bid near $85,000(h3) BTC’s latest move lower began when it couldn’t build follow-through above $90,000 and $90,500. Once that upside stalled, sellers took control and pushed price down through $88,500. The slide accelerated enough to spike below $87,000, but the market didn’t free-fall. Bulls defended the $85,000 zone, printing a low at $85,151. Since then, Bitcoin has been consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low — a clue that the bounce is still shallow and that sellers haven’t fully backed off yet. Structurally, BTC is still on the back foot: It’s trading below $88,000, and It remains below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, keeping short-term trend pressure pointed downward. Resistance is layered, and $89,000 is the problem area(h3) If bulls try to turn this into a recovery, they’ll have to climb through multiple ceilings in quick succession. First, BTC faces resistance around $87,150, followed by a more meaningful barrier near $87,500. From there, the market’s attention snaps back to $88,000 — the level BTC just lost and now needs to reclaim. A close back above $88,000 would improve the tone, but it doesn’t solve the bigger issue: there’s a bearish trend line on the hourly BTC/USD chart (Kraken feed) with resistance near $89,000, which also lines up with the next technical hurdle. If BTC can push through $89,000 and hold, the rebound could extend toward $90,000, with follow-through targets at $91,000 and $91,500. But until price clears that $88,000–$89,000 zone, rallies are at risk of being sold rather than chased. If BTC fails to reclaim resistance, the downside path is clear(h3) The near-term bear case is simple: if Bitcoin can’t climb back above the $87,000 area and keep traction, sellers may attempt another leg lower. Support levels line up like this: Immediate support: $85,500 First major support: $85,000 Next support: $83,500 Then $82,500 in the near term Below that, the major “don’t break this” level is still $80,000. If BTC slips under $80,000, the risk of acceleration to the downside increases significantly — not because it’s magic, but because it’s the kind of psychological and structural level that tends to trigger forced de-risking. Indicators: momentum still leans bearish(h3) The intraday indicators aren’t offering much comfort yet: Hourly MACD is losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI remains below 50, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand on short timeframes. So while the $85,000 defense held for now, the market hasn’t flipped bullish — it’s just stopped bleeding.
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