AUD/USD price Analysis: Volatility contracts amid Descending Triangle formation

Source Fxstreet
  • AUD/USD jumps to near 0.6650 ahead of US core PCE Inflation data.
  • The US Dollar weakens as a downwardly revised Q1 GDP keeps hopes of the Fed cutting rates at least once this year on the table.
  • Australia’s hot CPI report for April pushes back RBA’s rate-cut prospects.

The AUD/USD pair climbs to near 0.6650 in Friday’s London session. The Aussie asset strengthens as the US Dollar weakens ahead of United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for April, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

The US core PCE Inflation will provide cues about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates. Currently, financial markets are mixed about September’s policy meeting.

Economists expect that core PCE inflation rose steadily by 0.3% and 2.8% monthly and annually, respectively.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) seems vulnerable near day’s low around 104.65. The near-term outlook of the US Dollar turned uncertain after US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported its second estimates report for Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that the economy expanded at a slower pace of 1.3% due to lower consumer spendings from the preliminary estimates of 1.6%.

Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar’s appeal is upbeat as hot monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April has forced traders to pare Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) early rate-cut bets. Annually, price pressures rose at a higher pace of 3.6% than estimates of 3.5% and the former reading of 3.4%.

AUD/USD advances toward the downward-sloping border of the Descending Triangle chart pattern, which is plotted from May 16 high at 0.6714, formed on a daily timeframe. The horizontal support of the above-mentioned chart formation is marked from May 13 low at 0.6586.

Upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.6620 suggests that the near-term trend is bullish.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sharp volatility contraction.

Going forward, a decisive move above May’s high at 0.6714 will drive the asset towards January 3 high at 0.6771 and the round-level resistance of 0.6800.

Alternatively, a downside move would appear if the major breaks below May 14 low at 0.6580, which will expose it to May 1 high at 0.6540, followed by the psychological support of 0.6500.

AUD/USD daily chart

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price 0.6647
Today Daily Change 0.0014
Today Daily Change % 0.21
Today daily open 0.6633
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 0.6633
Daily SMA50 0.6561
Daily SMA100 0.6559
Daily SMA200 0.6535
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 0.6647
Previous Daily Low 0.6591
Previous Weekly High 0.6709
Previous Weekly Low 0.6592
Previous Monthly High 0.6644
Previous Monthly Low 0.6362
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6626
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6612
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.66
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6567
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6543
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6657
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.668
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6713

 

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Ethereum Drops Below $2,000 After Plunging Over 20% in a Month as Odds of $1,500 Retest SurgeEthereum Plunges Over 20% in a Month, Risking a Retest of $1,500 After Losing the $2,000 Defense Line.On November 13, Ethereum (ETH) plunged more than 5%, officially falling below the key
Author  TradingKey
9 hours ago
Ethereum Plunges Over 20% in a Month, Risking a Retest of $1,500 After Losing the $2,000 Defense Line.On November 13, Ethereum (ETH) plunged more than 5%, officially falling below the key
placeholder
Gold Price Forecast: Gold Tumbles Below $3,900 as Trump Says No Need for Iran Deal; Can October PPI Spur a Rebound? As of the Asian session on Friday (November 13), gold prices (XAUUSD) rebounded intraday following Thursday's sharp decline, trading near $3,910. Previously, gold tumbled 2.76% on Thursda
Author  TradingKey
12 hours ago
As of the Asian session on Friday (November 13), gold prices (XAUUSD) rebounded intraday following Thursday's sharp decline, trading near $3,910. Previously, gold tumbled 2.76% on Thursda
placeholder
Brent rose 3.3% and US crude stocks built 4.66 million barrels in the same weekBrent January settled at 95.82, up 3.3%, and WTI at 88.74, up 2.55%, after the US signalled it would not pursue a deal with Iran and attacks on Gulf shipping continued. In the same week, EIA data showed US crude inventories rising 4.657 million barrels against expectations of a 1.1 million draw, with gasoline up another 1.799 million. OPEC output also rebounded 1.96 million barrels a day to 27.16 million in October, led by Saudi Arabia at 10.56 million. This piece separates the geopolitical premium from the physical balance and lays out where each side of the trade is anchored.
Author  Irene Q.
15 hours ago
Brent January settled at 95.82, up 3.3%, and WTI at 88.74, up 2.55%, after the US signalled it would not pursue a deal with Iran and attacks on Gulf shipping continued. In the same week, EIA data showed US crude inventories rising 4.657 million barrels against expectations of a 1.1 million draw, with gasoline up another 1.799 million. OPEC output also rebounded 1.96 million barrels a day to 27.16 million in October, led by Saudi Arabia at 10.56 million. This piece separates the geopolitical premium from the physical balance and lays out where each side of the trade is anchored.
placeholder
Gold hit a one-year low while central banks bought 321 tonnes — the sellers were never the ones you thinkSpot gold closed at 3,876 on Thursday, down 2.8% and its lowest close in more than a year, with an intraday low near 3,852. The dollar is at a 19-month high of 103.21 and the 10-year yield is at 5.10%, so the price move is easy to explain. What is harder to explain is who sold: central banks bought 321 tonnes in Q3, the PBoC added for a 24th straight month, ETF holdings are near a record 4,256 tonnes, and roughly 95% of the futures selling came from non-reportable and sovereign-type accounts rather than hedge funds. This piece separates the two books that have to balance.
Author  Irene Q.
16 hours ago
Spot gold closed at 3,876 on Thursday, down 2.8% and its lowest close in more than a year, with an intraday low near 3,852. The dollar is at a 19-month high of 103.21 and the 10-year yield is at 5.10%, so the price move is easy to explain. What is harder to explain is who sold: central banks bought 321 tonnes in Q3, the PBoC added for a 24th straight month, ETF holdings are near a record 4,256 tonnes, and roughly 95% of the futures selling came from non-reportable and sovereign-type accounts rather than hedge funds. This piece separates the two books that have to balance.
placeholder
Today’s Market Recap: Nvidia Drops Over 4% After Jensen Huang Resigns, AMD and Broadcom Both Rise Over 5% On November 12, the three major U.S. stock indices closed slightly lower. Nvidia announced that Jensen Huang had stepped down immediately as CEO and director, draggi
Author  TradingKey
17 hours ago
On November 12, the three major U.S. stock indices closed slightly lower. Nvidia announced that Jensen Huang had stepped down immediately as CEO and director, draggi
Related Instrument
goTop
quote