AUD/USD price Analysis: Volatility contracts amid Descending Triangle formation

Source Fxstreet
  • AUD/USD jumps to near 0.6650 ahead of US core PCE Inflation data.
  • The US Dollar weakens as a downwardly revised Q1 GDP keeps hopes of the Fed cutting rates at least once this year on the table.
  • Australia’s hot CPI report for April pushes back RBA’s rate-cut prospects.

The AUD/USD pair climbs to near 0.6650 in Friday’s London session. The Aussie asset strengthens as the US Dollar weakens ahead of United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for April, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

The US core PCE Inflation will provide cues about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates. Currently, financial markets are mixed about September’s policy meeting.

Economists expect that core PCE inflation rose steadily by 0.3% and 2.8% monthly and annually, respectively.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) seems vulnerable near day’s low around 104.65. The near-term outlook of the US Dollar turned uncertain after US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported its second estimates report for Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that the economy expanded at a slower pace of 1.3% due to lower consumer spendings from the preliminary estimates of 1.6%.

Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar’s appeal is upbeat as hot monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April has forced traders to pare Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) early rate-cut bets. Annually, price pressures rose at a higher pace of 3.6% than estimates of 3.5% and the former reading of 3.4%.

AUD/USD advances toward the downward-sloping border of the Descending Triangle chart pattern, which is plotted from May 16 high at 0.6714, formed on a daily timeframe. The horizontal support of the above-mentioned chart formation is marked from May 13 low at 0.6586.

Upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.6620 suggests that the near-term trend is bullish.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sharp volatility contraction.

Going forward, a decisive move above May’s high at 0.6714 will drive the asset towards January 3 high at 0.6771 and the round-level resistance of 0.6800.

Alternatively, a downside move would appear if the major breaks below May 14 low at 0.6580, which will expose it to May 1 high at 0.6540, followed by the psychological support of 0.6500.

AUD/USD daily chart

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price 0.6647
Today Daily Change 0.0014
Today Daily Change % 0.21
Today daily open 0.6633
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 0.6633
Daily SMA50 0.6561
Daily SMA100 0.6559
Daily SMA200 0.6535
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 0.6647
Previous Daily Low 0.6591
Previous Weekly High 0.6709
Previous Weekly Low 0.6592
Previous Monthly High 0.6644
Previous Monthly Low 0.6362
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6626
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6612
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.66
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6567
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6543
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6657
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.668
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6713

 

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Fed hike odds near 90% into Wednesday's decision — how to trade the dollar, gold and the S&P 500A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
Author  Suzie
Sep 14, Mon
A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
placeholder
Bitcoin falls below $75,000 as the CLARITY Act fails in the Senate — what the vote means for cryptoThe US Senate blocked the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act in a 49-50 procedural vote, sending Bitcoin briefly below $75,000 — its biggest one-day drop since June. Ethereum fell more than 8%, Coinbase slid 10% and $75 billion of crypto market value evaporated. Here is what the vote was, why it failed, and the levels that matter now.
Author  Suzie
Sep 16, Wed
The US Senate blocked the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act in a 49-50 procedural vote, sending Bitcoin briefly below $75,000 — its biggest one-day drop since June. Ethereum fell more than 8%, Coinbase slid 10% and $75 billion of crypto market value evaporated. Here is what the vote was, why it failed, and the levels that matter now.
placeholder
Dollar index tops 100 for the first time since July as the Fed's hawkish dot plot sinks inThe U.S. dollar index broke back above 100 for the first time since 31 July after the Fed delivered its first rate hike since 2023, with the dot plot showing 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more increase this year. Here are the levels that matter for DXY, the currencies feeling it most, and what to watch next.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 17, Thu
The U.S. dollar index broke back above 100 for the first time since 31 July after the Fed delivered its first rate hike since 2023, with the dot plot showing 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more increase this year. Here are the levels that matter for DXY, the currencies feeling it most, and what to watch next.
placeholder
Gold rebounds to near $4,350 on weaker US Dollar, falling oil pricesGold price (XAU/USD) rises to near $4,345 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal rebounds from a six-week low amid falling oil prices and a weaker US Dollar (USD). Traders continue to assess the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike and policy cues.
Author  FXStreet
Yesterday 01: 32
Gold price (XAU/USD) rises to near $4,345 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal rebounds from a six-week low amid falling oil prices and a weaker US Dollar (USD). Traders continue to assess the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike and policy cues.
placeholder
US to delay new "overcapacity" tariffs on China — what the pause means for trade, inflation and the dollarWashington is expected to hold off announcing new tariffs over Chinese "overcapacity" until after the 24 September summit, according to Bloomberg. The postponed plan would have added 7.5% to Chinese goods, taking second-term US tariffs to around 20%. Here is what is on the table, and what a deal versus no deal would mean for the yuan, Hong Kong equities and the dollar.
Author  Mitrade
23 hours ago
Washington is expected to hold off announcing new tariffs over Chinese "overcapacity" until after the 24 September summit, according to Bloomberg. The postponed plan would have added 7.5% to Chinese goods, taking second-term US tariffs to around 20%. Here is what is on the table, and what a deal versus no deal would mean for the yuan, Hong Kong equities and the dollar.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote